Miethe et al. (1987) have suggested that there are strong interaction effects between demographic characteristics of victims and certain routine activities that occur at night and away from home, but only for victims of property crime. This same pattern does not appear for victims of violent crime, they maintain, because unlike property crime, violent crime often involves interpersonal conflict and disagreement and is therefore spontaneous. Using data from the Canadian Urban Victimization Survey, which contains detailed measures of routine activities not available in Miethe et al. 's U.S. study, this study finds contrary evidence that suggests that personal crime is contingent on the exposure that comes from following certain life‐styles. This is particularly true for certain demographic groups, particularly young males. The findings are considered in the light of the literature focusing on the interaction between situation and personality and the importance of the resulting conflict styles in promoting or reducing the opportunity for crime in certain settings and under certain conditions.
The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the ''best model'' risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for ''risk clusters'' in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decisionmaking. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.
Objectives
We have described national trends for the 5 leading external causes of injury mortality.
Methods
We used negative binomial regression and annual underlying cause-of-death data for US residents for 2000 through 2009.
Results
Mortality rates for unintentional poisoning, unintentional falls, and suicide increased by 128%, 71%, and 15%, respectively. The unintentional motor vehicle traffic crash mortality rate declined 25%. Suicide ranked first as a cause of injury mortality, followed by motor vehicle traffic crashes, poisoning, falls, and homicide. Females had a lower injury mortality rate than did males. The adjusted fall mortality rate displayed a positive age gradient. Blacks and Hispanics had lower adjusted motor vehicle traffic crash and suicide mortality rates and higher adjusted homicide rates than did Whites, and a lower unadjusted total injury mortality rate.
Conclusions
Mortality rates for suicide, poisoning, and falls rose substantially over the past decade. Suicide has surpassed motor vehicle traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality. Comprehensive traffic safety measures have successfully reduced the national motor vehicle traffic crash mortality rate. Similar efforts will be required to diminish the burden of other injury.
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