Serum creatinine is ordered more than 281 million times annually in the United States (based on the 191,354,358 creatinine tests reported in 1996 and assuming annual growth rate in testing of 3%),1 and recent reports show that more than 70% of laboratories now report estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation.2 Recently, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) developed and validated a new equation, the CKD-EPI creatinine equation, which uses the same variables as the MDRD Study, but is more accurate.3 , 4 Accuracy of GFR estimating equations is evaluated in comparison to measured GFR. However, as for other diagnostic tests, other criteria are also important in clinical practice and public health, including detecting disease, predicting prognosis, and guiding therapy. In this issue of the American Journal of Kidney Diseases, 2 articles compare the CKD-EPI equation with the MDRD Study equation for estimating the prevalence of CKD and predicting the risk of subsequent events in the general population. 5,6 In this editorial, we comment briefly on these articles and review the accuracy and applications of current GFR estimating equations (Table 1).
ACCURACYGFR estimating equations are derived from regression analysis in which the level of measured GFR is related to the serum concentration of an endogenous filtration marker and to observed clinical and demographic variables that serve as surrogates for the non-GFR determinants of the serum concentration. Age, sex, race, and body weight are surrogates for creatinine generation from muscle, which affects serum creatinine concentration independently from GFR. In principle, GFR estimating equations provide a more accurate estimate of measured GFR than the serum level of the filtration marker alone. In addition, GFR estimates are provided in the same units as measured GFR, thereby simplifying clinical decisions based on the level of kidney function. Inaccuracy of GFR estimates may be due to bias, defined as systematic deviation of estimated GFR compared with measured GFR using the reference (or "gold") standard, or may be due to imprecision, defined as random variation (or "spread") of estimated GFR values centered around the measured values. 7 © 2010 The National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. N Section: Address correspondence to Andrew S. Levey, MD, Division of Nephrology, Tufts Medical Center Box 391, 800 Washington St, Boston, MA 02111. alevey@tuftsmedicalcenter.org. Publisher's Disclaimer: This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to t...