No abstract

Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forestry landscapes to climate change remains challenging due to the need for integrating substantial amounts of information. This information ranges from climate scenarios, geographical site information, socio-economic data and several possible adaptation measures. Thus, there is an urgent need to have a framework that is capable of organizing adaptation strategies and measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Mediterranean climatic regions. Additionally, this framework should provide a cause effect relation with climate vulnerability to adequately support the development of adaptation planning at municipal and local (farm) level. In this context, we propose to test and evaluate a framework for climate adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sectors, based on the local causal-effect relation between adaptation strategies and measures and the level of vulnerability reduction achieved for Mediterranean areas. The framework was developed based on the combination of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) and Vulnerability frameworks and reviewed 162 practical adaptation measures, further organized into strategies, complemented by a set of efficacy indicators. The framework was tested with 70 stakeholders in six stakeholder workshops for the planning of two farms and one municipal climate adaptation study, that are now in actual implementation and monitoring. The framework is composed by a set of eight adaptation strategies in which adaptation measures are clustered and assessed using efficacy indicators. In the evaluation of the adaptation framework, 96% of stakeholders considered its content as good or very good and 89% considered the final outcomes as good or very good. Finally, the framework was also used to assess and compare the adaptation strategies and measures presented in the climate adaptation plans of the three case studies. On average, 52.2% of the adaptation measures selected by the three case studies are dedicated to Ecosystem Resilience, 30.9% to Adaptive Capacity, 9.1% to Microclimates, 7.4% to Protection, and 0.3% to Mitigation strategies. This framework was considered effective in supporting adaptation planning at farm and municipal levels and useful to assess and compare adaptation plans in the frame of vulnerability reduction. Future studies can further contribute to support adaptation planning in these sectors by using, developing and streamlining this framework to additional and different socio-ecological contexts.

Montados are oak wood-pastures occupying 11% of the Portuguese territory. This agroforestry system has been traditionally used for animal husbandry, agricultural, and forestry purposes. Present day Montados are threatened by land use changes, either intensification or abandonment, and climate global warming that has fostered parasitic plagues and enhanced hydric stress. This study highlights the relevance of holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia) wood-pastures in SE Portugal's landscape throughout the last 125 years and assesses its health condition for the last two decades aiming to evaluate the chances of its continuity. Spatially, we use the Portuguese territory on the left bank of the Guadiana river for the historical changes on land use, and 6 farmlands located within this region to analyse present day tendencies. Temporally, we consider the intervals 1890-2015 and 2006-2019. We analysed five land use maps from different dates using ArcGIS to access holm oak Montados' areas in the different dates to analyse its variation over time. We used Google Earth's images to evaluate the present-day tendencies in tree density and mortality. Results indicate that holm oak woodland distribution in the study area increased during the 20 th century having maintained quite stable from the 1990's to the present day. However, a negative trend in tree density during the latter period was found. We also verified that tree natural regeneration is not enough to replace dying trees hinting towards a conversion of grazed woodlands into treeless pastures, concluding that if these tendencies persist the continuity of the holm oak agroforestry system in south-eastern Portugal may be threatened.