Habitat loss threatens large mammals worldwide, and their survival will depend on habitat in human-dominated landscapes. Conservation planners thus face the challenge to identify areas of least conflict with land use, yet broadscale species distribution models rarely incorporate real landscape patterns nor do they identify potential conservation conflicts. An excellent example of such conservation challenges is provided by European bison (Bison bonasus). Almost extinct by the early 20th century, bison can only survive in the wild if large metapopulations are established, but it is unclear where new herds can be reintroduced. Using European bison as an example we conducted a continental-scale habitat assessment based on real landscape patterns. Our specific aims here were to (1) map European bison habitat throughout the species' former range, (2) examine whether broadscale habitat suitability factors differ from previously reported fine-scale factors, and (3) assess where suitable habitat occurs in areas with low potential for conflict with land use. We assessed habitat suitability using herd range maps for all 36 free-ranging European bison herds as habitat use data. Habitat suitability maps were compared with maps of land cover, livestock density, agricultural constraints, and protected areas to assess potential conservation conflicts. Our models had high goodness of fit (AUC = 0.941), and we found abundant potential bison habitat. European bison prefer mosaic-type landscapes, with a preference for broad-leaved and mixed forests. European bison metapopulations do not appear to be limited by habitat availability. However, most potential habitat occurred outside protected areas and has substantial potential for conservation conflicts. The most promising areas for establishing large bison metapopulations all occur in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Carpathians, the Belarus-Ukraine borderlands, and several regions in European Russia). The future of European bison and that of other large mammals in the wild thus clearly lies in Eastern Europe, because habitat there is most abundant and least fragmented, and because the potential for conflict with land use is lower. More generally we suggest that broadscale habitat assessments that incorporate land use can be powerful tools for conservation planning and will be key if large herbivore and carnivore conservation is to succeed in a human-dominated world.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that socioeconomic shocks strongly affect wildlife populations, but quantitative evidence is sparse. The collapse of socialism in Russia in 1991 caused a major socioeconomic shock, including a sharp increase in poverty. We analyzed population trends of 8 large mammals in Russia from 1981 to 2010 (i.e., before and after the collapse). We hypothesized that the collapse would first cause population declines, primarily due to overexploitation, and then population increases due to adaptation of wildlife to new environments following the collapse. The long-term Database of the Russian Federal Agency of Game Mammal Monitoring, consisting of up to 50,000 transects that are monitored annually, provided an exceptional data set for investigating these population trends. Three species showed strong declines in population growth rates in the decade following the collapse, while grey wolf (Canis lupus) increased by more than 150%. After 2000 some trends reversed. For example, roe deer (Capreolus spp.) abundance in 2010 was the highest of any period in our study. Likely reasons for the population declines in the 1990s include poaching and the erosion of wildlife protection enforcement. The rapid increase of the grey wolf populations is likely due to the cessation of governmental population control. In general, the widespread declines in wildlife populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union highlight the magnitude of the effects that socioeconomic shocks can have on wildlife populations and the possible need for special conservation efforts during such times.

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The dynamics of wild and tame reindeer populations in Russia during 1991-99 are described. Causes of declining numbers during this period are suggested and comparison is made with population fluctuations in the past

This document has been prepared with the assistance of Istituto di Ecologia Applicata and with the contributions of the IUCN/SSC Large Carnivore Initiative for Europe (chair: Luigi Boitani) under contract N°070307/2012/629085/SER/B3.