18 19 Epidemiological models are routinely used to predict the effects of interventions aimed at 20 reducing the impacts of Ebola epidemics. Most models of interventions targeting 21 symptomatic hosts, such as isolation or treatment, assume that all symptomatic hosts are 22 Liberia. However, for both of these epidemics, when interventions are altered identically 32 in the models with and without levels of symptoms that depend on the time since first 33 infection, predictions from the models differ. Our work highlights the need to consider 34 whether or not varying symptoms should be accounted for in models used by decision 35 makers to assess the likely efficacy of Ebola interventions. 36 37 KEYWORDS 38 Ebola virus disease; Mathematical modelling; Epidemic forecasting; Infectious disease 39 management; Disease control; Interventions 40 41 on epidemic dynamics. Here, an intensification of surveillance is assumed to lead to improved detection 56 and control of infectious hosts, thereby reducing the total number of cases. A. Model fitting. Model57 parameters are chosen so that the model output (black dotted) approximates epidemic data (red stars) B. 58 Intervention testing. A range of alternative control interventions are introduced into the fitted model, and 59 predicted dynamics under these new control interventions can be observed -predictions of the effects of 60 reduced surveillance (green), slightly intensified surveillance (blue) and significantly intensified surveillance 61 (red).62 63 64 A commonly used model for characterising epidemics of diseases including Ebola is the 65Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model [5][6][7], and extensions to this 66 basic model include explicit incorporation of transmission from Ebola deceased hosts [8-67 10] or accounting for mismatches between symptoms and infectiousness [11,12]. 68Possible interventions include isolation of symptomatic hosts, which can be included in 69 the SEIR model by removing individuals from the infectious class. All individuals in the 70 infectious class are usually assumed to be symptomatic, with the level of symptoms being 71 assumed constant and therefore independent of the stage of infection. As an example, 72Chowell et al. [13] assume that symptomatic individuals are isolated at a constant rate, 73and Meakin et al. [4] assume that symptomatic individuals are hospitalised at a constant 74 rate. 75
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