More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water(1). Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle(2) and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land-a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability-remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network(3), meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm(4). In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface-models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 +/- 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Nino event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science

[1] We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5°× 0.5°spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 ± 7 J × 10 18 yr −1 ), H (164 ± 15 J × 10 18 yr −1), and GPP (119 ± 6 Pg C yr ) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 ± 6 Pg C yr −1 ) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.

Carbon exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is one of the key processes that need to be assessed in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Several studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere is gaining carbon, but these estimates are obtained primarily by indirect methods, and the factors that control terrestrial carbon exchange, its magnitude and primary locations, are under debate. Here we present data of net ecosystem carbon exchange, collected between 1996 and 1998 from 15 European forests, which confirm that many European forest ecosystems act as carbon sinks. The annual carbon balances range from an uptake of 6.6 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year to a release of nearly 1 t C ha(-1) yr(-1), with a large variability between forests. The data show a significant increase of carbon uptake with decreasing latitude, whereas the gross primary production seems to be largely independent of latitude. Our observations indicate that, in general, ecosystem respiration determines net ecosystem carbon exchange. Also, for an accurate assessment of the carbon balance in a particular forest ecosystem, remote sensing of the normalized difference vegetation index or estimates based on forest inventories may not be sufficient.

Terrestrial ecosystems sequester 2.1 Pg of atmospheric carbon annually. A large amount of the terrestrial sink is realized by forests. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding the fate of this carbon over both short and long timescales. Relevant data to address these uncertainties are being collected at many sites around the world, but syntheses of these data are still sparse. To facilitate future synthesis activities, we have assembled a comprehensive global database for forest ecosystems, which includes carbon budget variables (fluxes and stocks), ecosystem traits (e.g. leaf area index, age), as well as ancillary site information such as management regime, climate, and soil characteristics. This publicly available database can be used to quantify global, regional or biome-specific carbon budgets; to re-examine established relationships; to test emerging hypotheses about ecosystem functioning [e.g. a constant net ecosystem production (NEP) to gross primary production (GPP) ratio]; and as benchmarks for model evaluations. In this paper, we present the first analysis of this database. We discuss the climatic influences on GPP, net primary production (NPP) and NEP and present the CO 2 balances for boreal, temperate, and tropical forest biomes based on micrometeorological, ecophysiological, and biometric flux and inventory estimates. Globally, GPP of forests benefited from higher temperatures and precipitation whereas NPP saturated above either a threshold of 1500 mm precipitation or a mean annual temperature of 10 1C. The global pattern in NEP was insensitive to climate and is hypothesized to be mainly determined by nonclimatic conditions such as successional stage, management, site history, and site disturbance. In all biomes, closing the CO 2 balance required the introduction of substantial biome-specific closure terms. Nonclosure was taken as an indication that respiratory processes, advection, and non-CO 2 carbon fluxes are not presently being adequately accounted for. Nomenclauture:DOC 5 dissolved organic carbon; fNPP 5 foliage component of NPP; GPP 5 gross primary production (GPP40 denotes photosynthetic uptake); mNPP 5 missing component of NPP;NBP 5 net biome production (NBP40 denotes biome uptake); NECB 5 net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB40 denotes ecosystem uptake); NEE 5 net ecosystem exchange (NEE40 denotes ecosystem uptake); NEP 5 net ecosystem production (NEP40 denotes ecosystem uptake); NPP 5 net primary production (NPP40 denotes ecosystem uptake); R a 5 autotrophic respiration (R a 40 denotes respiratory losses); R e 5 ecosystem respiration (R e 40 denotes respiratory losses); R h 5 heterotrophic respiration (R h 40 denotes respiratory losses); rNPP 5 root component of NPP;R s 5 soil respiration (R s 40 denotes respiratory losses); VOC 5 volatile organic compounds; wNPP 5 wood component of NPP

Summary This paper presents CO2 flux data from 18 forest ecosystems, studied in the European Union funded EUROFLUX project. Overall, mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP, the total amount of carbon (C) fixed during photosynthesis) of these forests was 1380 ± 330 gC m−2 y−1 (mean ±SD). On average, 80% of GPP was respired by autotrophs and heterotrophs and released back into the atmosphere (total ecosystem respiration, TER = 1100 ± 260 gC m−2 y−1). Mean annual soil respiration (SR) was 760 ± 340 gC m−2 y−1 (55% of GPP and 69% of TER). Among the investigated forests, large differences were observed in annual SR and TER that were not correlated with mean annual temperature. However, a significant correlation was observed between annual SR and TER and GPP among the relatively undisturbed forests. On the assumption that (i) root respiration is constrained by the allocation of photosynthates to the roots, which is coupled to productivity, and that (ii) the largest fraction of heterotrophic soil respiration originates from decomposition of young organic matter (leaves, fine roots), whose availability also depends on primary productivity, it is hypothesized that differences in SR among forests are likely to depend more on productivity than on temperature. At sites where soil disturbance has occurred (e.g. ploughing, drainage), soil espiration was a larger component of the ecosystem C budget and deviated from the relationship between annual SR (and TER) and GPP observed among the less‐disturbed forests. At one particular forest, carbon losses from the soil were so large, that in some years the site became a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Excluding the disturbed sites from the present analysis reduced mean SR to 660 ± 290 gC m−2 y−1, representing 49% of GPP and 63% of TER in the relatively undisturbed forest ecosystems.