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There is more and more empirical evidence to show that highly skilled people are an important determinant of economic growth. Consequently, policy-makers are eager to keep their graduates in the region or attract graduates from elsewhere. It is also well known that people with a higher level of education exhibit high rates of spatial mobility. Much less is known about mobility patterns according to discipline and academic grade. Do the best people stay or leave, and does this vary according to discipline and type of region? This paper investigates the relationship between ability, field of study and spatial mobility using a micro‐dataset on Dutch university and college graduates. The findings indicate that there are substantial net flows mainly towards the economic centre of the Netherlands, but that there are also flows between peripheral regions and to other countries. The paper finds that university graduates are more spatially mobile than vocational college level graduates and that when one looks at spatial behaviour according to discipline, there are also striking differences between graduates. This, however, does not necessarily mean that peripheral regions also lose their best graduates. For several disciplines, employers in the peripheral areas are able to retain the graduates with the highest grades, contrary to what the standard human capital framework predicts. However, the study finds that if graduates leave the region, those with the highest grades are more likely to move abroad.Migration , higher educated graduates , human capital , the Netherlands , periphery , multinominal logit ,

Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, crosscountry comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations. More specifically, the differences between the two sets of reported data are overcome by estimating a set of adjustment factors for each country's immigration and emigration data. The adjusted data take into account any special cases where the origin-destination patterns do not match the overall patterns. The new method for harmonising migration flows that we present is based on earlier efforts by Poulain ( represent a reliable and consistent set of international migration flows that can be used for understanding recent changes in migration patterns, as inputs into population projections and for developing evidence-based migration policies.

AIMSWe formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smokingepidemic model. METHODSWe used smoking prevalence and population-level lung-cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950 to 2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (1) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; (2) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16%, 12-26%, and 13-31%, for women. CONCLUSIONSFrom Northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality stays similar across countries and between sexes.3

In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over the last decade and how they are likely to evolve in the coming three decades, and we examine how demographic components of population growth contribute to the process. We use the beta-convergence approach to test whether regions are moving towards a common level of population aging. The change in population composition is decomposed into the separate effects of changes in the size of the non-working-age population and of the working-age population. The latter changes are further decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, migration at working ages, and mortality at working ages. European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)-2 regions experienced notable convergence in population aging during the period 2003–2012 and are expected to experience further convergence in the coming three decades. Convergence in aging mainly depends on changes in the population structure of East-European regions. Cohort turnover plays the major role in promoting convergence. Differences in mortality at working ages, though quite moderate themselves, have a significant cumulative effect. The projections show that when it is assumed that net migration flows at working ages are converging across European regions, this will not contribute to convergence of population aging. The beta-convergence approach proves useful to examine regional variations in population aging across Europe.

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The consequences of population decline are present at different geographical scales and are often believed to be self-reinforcing. This means that population decline possibly causes changes in the living environment, which brings about more population decline. This research analysed if population decline at the neighbourhood level has an effect on the probability to move out or within rural neighbourhoods in North-Netherlands. It was expected that a preceding decline of the population in the neighbourhood increased the probability to move out of the neighbourhood, but that this effect differed for categories of the population and for moves over short and long distance. Using register data and additional surveys for 2006, a multinomial logistic regression model was constructed to estimate the effects of a preceding decline of neighbourhood populations on the probability to move over short and long distances for different categories of the population. It was found that a preceding decline of the neighbourhood population increased the probability to move out of the neighbourhood. However, this effect was only found for moves out of the neighbourhood up to 10 kilometres of especially young adults, couples with children, and people aged 65 to 75. Moreover, by calculating estimated probabilities of moving out of neighbourhoods with declining and stable populations, it was shown that the difference between actual numbers of people moving out of these two types of neighbourhoods, was small and could therefore take a long time to have serious impact on the neighbourhood population.

During the past few years, the Dutch education system has been confronted with a sharp decline in the number of pupils. Especially in rural villages, inhabitants fear for the closure of their local primary school, which is perceived as a very negative development for local village life. This paper shows that the relatively sharp decline of the number of pupils in the next decade can be explained by a wavelike pattern in the past and projected number of pupils, resulting from the baby bust of the 1960s and 1970s. The relative decrease in pupils will almost be as strong in future depopulating (Anticipeer) regions as in present day declining (Topkrimp) regions. However, municipalities in the Topkrimp regions have many smaller primary schools which implies that they will have to deal with school mergers and closures in the near future. The paper concludes that long term effects of school closures on local society are not as devastating as often perceived.t esg_736 487..496