Satellites Over Seals (SOS), a project initiated in late 2016, is a crowdsourced method to determine factors behind the presence/absence patterns and to ultimately determine the global population of the Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii). An iconic species, the Weddell seal is proposed to be part of the Antarctic Research and Monitoring Program required in the newly designated Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area. This species is easy to detect via satellite imagery, due to its large size (3–4 m long, 1 m wide) and its dark color contrasting with the Antarctic coastal fast ice, where it aggregates on during breeding season. Using very high‐resolution satellite imagery (VHR; 0.31–0.60 m resolution) and the online platform Tomnod, we used VHR images from November 2010 and 2011 to cover the entirety of available fast ice around Antarctica. Before correcting for time of day or date, we searched for the presence/absence to identify a subset of where abundance estimates should be concentrated. More than 325 000 citizen scientists searched 790 VHR images, covering 268 611 km2 of fast ice, to determine the locations of seals. Algorithms ranked searchers to the degree their votes corresponded with others, a measure of searcher relative quality that we used to filter out unreliable searchers. Seal presence was detected on only 0.55% of available maps (total n = 1 116 058) within fast ice, revealing a sparse, irregular distribution. The rate of false‐negative detections was 1.7%, though false positives were high (67%), highlighting the importance of training for image interpretation to ensure differentiation between seals and landscape features (such as large rocks, ice chunks or depressions/holes in the ice). This approach not only allowed us to assess image resolution and quality, but also training, outreach and the effectiveness of this platform for introducing citizen scientists to the ecology of the Southern Ocean.
Aim Creating a network of marine protected areas in the Southern Ocean requires extensive knowledge on species’ abundances, distributions and population trends especially in the Weddell Sea where year‐round pack ice makes most of the Weddell Sea inaccessible. We combine satellite images and citizen science to model habitat suitability for crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) throughout the Weddell Sea. Location Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Methods High‐resolution satellite images covering 18,219 km2 of the Weddell Sea during crabeater seal breeding season (October—November) were hosted on the crowd‐sourcing platform Tomnod (DigitalGlobe). Citizen scientists marked “maps” where seals were present/absent and these votes were compared with the votes of an experienced observer. Correction factors were used to correct votes to either a continuous probability of seal presence, or a binary seal presence/absence value. We modelled probability of seal presence using ensemble models of Random Forests (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), and used fitted Maxent models to model seal presence/absence data. Results Model predictive power was low (RF: R2 = 0.076 ± 0.002: BRT: R2 = 0.086 ± 0.0008; SVM: R2 = 0.082 ± 0.003) to average (Maxent: AUC = 0.71 ± 0.004). Distance to the ice edge and bathymetry were the most important variables that influenced crabeater seal distribution. Main conclusions Crabeater seals were more likely to be present over abyssal water, which coincides with typical adult Antarctic krill habitat — crabeater seal preferred prey. Where ice concentrations were more variable, that is more accessible, crabeater seals were also more likely to occur. Results agreed with the known ecology of crabeaters seals and the abundance, distribution and ecology of Antarctic krill. We were able to survey the largest area ever surveyed in the Weddell Sea and provide a model to assist furthering policy around the proposed protected area.
The Weddell seal is one of the best-studied marine mammals in the world, owing to a multidecadal demographic effort in the southernmost part of its range. Despite their occurrence around the Antarctic coastline, we know little about larger scale patterns in distribution, population size, or structure. We combined high-resolution satellite imagery from 2011, crowd-sourcing, and habitat modeling to report the first global population estimate for the species and environmental factors that influence its distribution. We estimated ~202,000 (95% confidence interval: 85,345 to 523,140) sub-adult and adult female seals, with proximate ocean depth and fast-ice variables as factors explaining spatial prevalence. Distances to penguin colonies were associated with seal presence, but only emperor penguin population size had a strong negative relationship. The small, estimated population size relative to previous estimates and the seals' nexus with trophic competitors indicates that a community ecology approach is required in efforts to monitor the Southern Ocean ecosystem.
Abstract. Extraction of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea began in 1997, following a management plan that targets the largest fish with a goal of reducing the spawning biomass by 50% over 35 yr. We investigate the potential long-term consequences of the reduced availability of this prey for Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii). Energy demands in seals are acute, especially immediately following lactation, when females must recover substantial mass and cope with molting costs. We tested the hypothesis that toothfish are critically important for adult female seals during this period. Toothfish body mass is three orders of magnitude greater, and its energy density nearly double that of the most common seal prey, Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum). Reduction or elimination of toothfish consumption could impair a female's ability to sufficiently recover and successfully produce a pup in the following pupping season. Our goals are to (1) illustrate mechanisms and conditions whereby toothfish depletion might plausibly affect seal population trends; (2) identify measurable parameters of the seals' ecology that may help better understand the potential negative impact of toothfish depletion on seal populations; and (3) promote a precautionary management approach for the fishery that includes monitoring of seal populations We constructed a set of inter-linked models of seal diving behavior, physiological condition, and demography based on existing information. We evaluate the effect of the following factors on seal mass recovery and intrinsic population growth rates: fishery depletion rate, daily diving limits, probability of a successful dive, and body mass recovery target. We show that loss of toothfish has the greatest potential impact on seal populations' growth rate. Under some scenarios, populations may decrease at >10% per year. Critical parameters to better understand fishery impacts include prevalence and size of toothfish in the seals' diet; the relationship between diet and the rate of mass recovery; and female breeding propensity in relation to body condition at the end of the molting period. Our results lend support to concerns about the potential negative impact of toothfish extraction in the Ross Sea; and to advocate for a precautionary management approach by the fishery.
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