Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects infrastructure and livelihoods. To date, there have been no demographic studies of the population on permafrost. We present the first estimates of the number of inhabitants on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) and project changes as a result of permafrost thaw. We combine current and projected populations at settlement level with permafrost extent. Key findings indicate that there are 1162 permafrost settlements in the ACPR, accommodating 5 million inhabitants, of whom 1 million live along a coast. Climate-driven permafrost projections suggest that by 2050, 42% of the permafrost settlements will become permafrost-free due to thawing. Among the settlements remaining on permafrost, 42% are in high hazard zones, where the consequences of permafrost thaw will be most severe. In total, 3.3 million people in the ACPR live currently in settlements where permafrost will degrade and ultimately disappear by 2050.

This publication is part of the Nunataryuk project. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 773421. Nordregio is a leading Nordic and European research centre for regional development and planning, established by the Nordic Council of Ministers in 1997. We conduct solution-oriented and applied research, addressing current issues from both a research perspective and the viewpoint of policymakers and practitioners. Operating at the international, national, regional and local levels, Nordregio's research covers a wide geographic scope, with an emphasis on the Nordic and Baltic Sea Regions, Europe and the Arctic. The Nordic cooperation Nordic cooperation is one of the world's most extensive forms of regional collaboration, involving Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Åland. Nordic cooperation has firm traditions in politics, the economy, and culture. It plays an important role in European and international collaboration, and aims at creating a strong Nordic community in a strong Europe. Nordic cooperation seeks to safeguard Nordic and regional interests and principles in the global community. Common Nordic values help the region solidify its position as one of the world's most innovative and competitive. The Nordic Council of Ministers is a forum of cooperation between the Nordic governments. The Nordic Council of Ministers implements Nordic cooperation. The prime ministers have the overall responsibility. Its activities are coordinated by the Nordic ministers for cooperation , the Nordic Committee for cooperation and portfolio ministers. Founded in 1971. The Nordic Council is a forum for cooperation between the Nordic parliaments and governments. The Council consists of 87 parliamentarians from the Nordic countries. The Nordic Council takes policy initiative s and monitors Nordic cooperation. Founded in 1952.

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Background: Climate change is a major global challenge, especially for Indigenous communities. It can have extensive impacts on peoples' lives that may occur through the living environment, health and mental well-being, and which are requiring constant adaptation. Objectives: The overall purpose of this research was to evaluate the impacts of climate change and permafrost thaw on mental wellness in Disko Bay, Greenland. It contained two parts: multidisciplinary fieldwork and a questionnaire survey. The aim of the fieldwork was to learn about life and living conditions and to understand what it is like to live in a community that faces impacts of climate change and permafrost thaw. For the questionnaire the aim was to find out which perceived environmental and adaptation factors relate to very good self-rated wellbeing, quality of life and satisfaction with life. Analysis: Fieldwork data was analyzed by following a thematic analysis, and questionnaire data statistically by cross-tabulation. First, the associations between perceived environmental and adaptation factors were studied either by the Pearson χ 2 test or by Fisher's exact test. Second, binary logistic regression analysis was applied to examine more in depth the associations between perceived environmental/adaptation variables and self-rated very good well-being, satisfaction with life and quality of life. The binary logistic regression analysis was conducted in two phases: as univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Nature and different activities in nature were found to be important to local people, and results suggest that they increase mental wellness, specifically well-being and satisfaction with life. Challenges associated with permafrost thaw, such as changes in the physical environment, infrastructure and impacts on culture were recognized in everyday life. Conclusions: The results offer relevant information for further plans and actions in this field of research and at the policy level. Our study shows the importance of multidisciplinary research which includes the voice of local communities.

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Climate change is a global challenge which has direct and indirect health impacts on the lives of people and communities in the Arctic. The aim of our study was to evaluate the perception of permafrost thaw and health challenges and to determine which perceived environmental and adaptation factors relate to self-rated health and, more specifically, to feeling of empowerment when facing the changes and impacts of climate change and permafrost thawing. Questionnaire data (n = 100) were collected from one community located in Greenland, Disko Bay. Data were analyzed by cross-tabulation and the significances were tested either by Pearson’s χ2 test, Fisher’s exact test or by the t-test, when applicable. Based on these analyses, logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations between demographic variables, challenges posed by permafrost thaw and self-rated health, and associations between feeling of empowerment and perceived environmental/adaptation factors. The results indicated that climate change was not assessed as being a direct risk for the health of local people or their feeling of empowerment. Nature seemed to play an important role for local people, and not being in the natural environment for recreational activities seemed to decrease feeling of empowerment (OR 0.42, p = 0.042, 95% CI 0.17–0.97). This paper provides new, multidisciplinary research information about the perception of health challenges, health, and feeling of empowerment among people living in an environment impacted by permafrost thaw and climate change.

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