The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3•5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Background The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.Methods To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0•03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1•0). FindingsIn 2019, there were 36•8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35•1-38•9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0•84 males (95% UI 0•78-0•91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0•99 male infections (0•91-1•10) for every female infection, and 1•02 male deaths (0•95-1•10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28•52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19•58-35•43, and a 39•66% decrease in deaths, 36•49-42•36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0•05 (95% UI 0•05-0•06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1•94 (1•76-2•12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress.Interpretation Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics.

Background Incidence of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) among Type 2 diabetic patients is significantly increasing. But, earlier studies has focused on the admitted patients which may hide the true nature of the Acute Kidney Injury among Type 2 Diabetic (T2D) patients. So, this study was conducted to determine the time to Acute Kidney Injury and its predictors among Type 2 Diabetic patients in Harari Region, East Ethiopia. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among type 2 diabetic patients who had been receiving treatment at government hospitals of Harari region, Ethiopia from 2013 to 2017. We extracted data from patients’ medical records. We estimated incidence rate and compared survival curves between different exposure groups using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank test. Weibull regression model was fitted to the data to identify the predictor variables. Variables with p-value <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results Overall, 14.5% (95%CI: 11.7–17.9) of the study population developed acute kidney injury, with median survival time of 57 months. The significant predictors were physical activity [Adjusted Time Ratio (ATR):95%CI; 0.6 (0.49–0.75)], congestive heart failure [ATR:95%CI; 0.84 (0.71–0.99)], chronic kidney disease [ATR:95%CI; 0.77(0.65–0.91)], hypertension [ATR:95%CI; 0.78(0.65–0.91)], obesity [ATR:95%CI; 0.84(0.74–0.96)], diabetic nephropathy [ATR:95%CI; 0.80(0.65–0.98)], diuretics & beta blockers [ATR:95%CI; 0.85(0.74–0.97)], and delay of follow-up [ATR:95%CI; 0.97(0.96–0.98)]. Conclusions Incidence of acute kidney injury was high in our study area. Hence, identification and controlling of comorbidities along with regular monitoring of kidney function are needed to prevent or delay the risk of acute kidney injury in type 2 diabetic patients.

Background The perinatal mortality rate in Ethiopia is among the highest in Sub Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to identify the spatial patterns and determinants of perinatal mortality in the country using a national representative 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. Methods The analysis was completed utilizing data from 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. This data captured the information of 5 years preceding the survey period. A total of 7230 women who at delivered at seven or more months gestational age nested within 622 enumeration areas (EAs) were used. Statistical analysis was performed by using STATA version 14.1, by considering the hierarchical nature of the data. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to identify community and individual-level factors associated with perinatal mortality. ArcGIS version 10.1 was used for spatial analysis. Moran’s, I statistics fitted to identify global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation was identified using SatSCan version 9.6. Results The spatial distribution of perinatal mortality in Ethiopia revealed a clustering pattern. The global Moran’s I value was 0.047 with p-value <0.001. Perinatal mortality was positively associated with the maternal age, being from rural residence, history of terminating a pregnancy, and place of delivery, while negatively associated with partners’ educational level, higher wealth index, longer birth interval, female being head of household and the number of antenatal care (ANC) follow up. Conclusions In Ethiopia, the perinatal mortality is high and had spatial variations across the country. Strengthening partner’s education, family planning for longer birth interval, ANC, and delivery services are essential to reduce perinatal mortality and achieve sustainable development goals in Ethiopia. Disparities in perinatal mortality rates should be addressed alongside efforts to address inequities in maternal and neonatal healthcare services all over the country.

No abstract