Changes in contemporary geopolitics has resulted in increased chance for conflict. This situation has opened the space for historians to provide critical insights by looking at the roots and similarities with past conflicts. The trade war launched by the US president Donald Trump against the People's Republic of China provides credibility to some in the international relations circle toward the theory of Thuycidides trap. This theory states that the rise of a new power and the decline of an old one almost always result in conflict that is manifested through war. The last time a Thuycidides trap appeared was during the period of decline of the British Empire from its hegemonic position and the opening chance to new powers to reach that hegemonic post. The rise of Germany, Japan and the United States resulted in the heightening chance of conflict that resulted in a Thuycidides trap manifested through the First and Second World War. Of course, there are significant difference to contemporary position regarding China and the US. The major challenger to America's hegemony appeared to be solely the Chinese. British challenge during the early 20 th century was more varied. Aside from that, the transition from British to the US is a shift from societies with similar culture and institutions, but the transition from the US to China is a very different and significant shift since the rise of Europe as a global power. It the transition occur, this would become the first time since the rise of the West that a global hegemony would be concentrated in a nonwestern power. How historians could give a nuanced and critical outlook on this Thuycidides trap would be very useful for people around the world that now have to traverse an ocean of potential violence and war.
The world is facing chaos as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, a disease caused by the SARS-COV-2 virus. The respiratory disease has spread globally after it was detected in the city of Wuhan, China. As a result of its spread, countries imposed lockdowns resulting in the halt of economic, social and cultural activities. The result of this civilizational lockdown will only be fully known after counting its devastating havoc after we can control the conditions better. With factories, schools and offices shutdown , economic growth will falter and this will have spillover effects in the social, political and cultural realms. More importantly, the disease may have important long-term geopolitical consequences in a geopolitical climate that is punctuated by the increasing clash between the US and China. The pandemic may well accelerate or decelerate the decoupling process that we've seen in the last couple of years. Only time will tell. The outbreak of pandemic of this magnitude is a rare occurrence. The last major pandemic has been the Spanish Flu which have resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of people around the world. This pandemic occurred during the final years of the First World War around a century ago. This may have helped with the relative amnesia that people have with its memories and consequences. Few people remembered the Spanish Flu as a standalone world-significant event. This time around, the Covid-19 pandemic occurred at a period of relative peace, stability and global growth. Its impact would thus presumably be more culturally felt and it would thus have greater stay in the cultural memory of the people of the 21 st century, although again, this can only be proven years after historians of the future has the time and distance to assess the damage. Historians today has a unique opportunity to provide perspectives and lessons learned from previous pandemics, not just the Spanish Flu and the more recent albeit more constrained pandemics such as the Hong Kong Flu, the Bird Flu and others. But also looking at it from a longue duree perspective, with the cultural and political ramifications of disease such as the Black Death and others and how humans and its institutions have evolved to deal with them sustainably. The Covid-19 pandemic may well be an early test to human civilization's ability to cope with changing environment and climate as it enters into the perilous 21 st century-with increasing global challenges ahead. The way in which humanity respond to this pandemic may tell us about the prospect of human sustainability in the long and arduous future ahead.
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