The growing interest in the development of forecasting applications with neural networks is denoted by the publication of more than 10,000 research articles present in the literature. However, the high number of factors included in the configuration of the network, the training process, validation and forecasting, and the sample of data, which must be determined in order to achieve an adequate network model for forecasting, converts neural networks in an unstable technique, given that any change in training or in some parameter produces great changes in the prediction. In this chapter, an analysis of the problematic around the factors that affect the construction of the neural network models is made and that often present inconsistent results, and the fields that require additional research are highlighted.
Objetivo: Desarrollar un método para clasificar, caracterizar y pronosticar perfiles competitivos del sector tiendas minoristas a partir de la integración de la técnica de análisis de cluster y las redes neuronales artificiales. Metodología: Para lo anterior se revisó la literatura relacionada con la competitividad de tiendas minoristas a partir de lo cual se identificaron variables asociadas a esta investigación. La información analizada corresponde a 224 tiendas de comercio minorista de la ciudad de Barranquilla. Resultados: El análisis de cluster permitió caracterizar 4 perfiles competitivos del sector que mostraron ser homogéneos intragrupo y heterogéneos extragrupo, El modelo de red neuronal artificial mostró un 91,3% de clasificación correcta en la muestra de reserva, con lo cual se infiere la capacidad de clasificación del modelo de red y la capacidad discriminante de las variables relacionadas con el conocimiento de productos y precios, las prácticas de inventario y ventas, presencia en el mercado, atención diferenciada, ubicación y variedad de productos en los perfiles identificados. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la investigación muestran alta capacidad del método cluster-RNA, para clasificar y proyectar perfiles competitivos a partir de los cuales se pueden diseñar procesos de mejoramiento.
The objective of this chapter is to analyze the problem surrounding the task of prognosis with neural networks and the factors that affect the construction of the model, and that often lead to inconsistent results, emphasizing the problems of selecting the training algorithm, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, and input variables. The methodology is to analyze the forecast of time series, due to the growing need for tools that facilitate decision-making, especially in series that, given their characteristics of noise and variability, infer nonlinear dynamics. Neural networks have emerged as an attractive approach to the representation of such behaviors due to their adaptability, generalization, and learning capabilities. Practical evidence shows that the Delta Delta and RProp training methods exhibit different behaviors than expected.
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