Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for “just-in-time” delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain. Over the longer term, a continuation of the pandemic could push the supply chain toward greater consolidation of firms and diversification of products given the increasing option value of maintaining flexibility. Other structural changes will be felt through input markets, most notably labour, as the trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate as a response to meeting concerns about a consistent supply of healthy and productive workers. The economic fall out from the pandemic may lead to greater concentration in the sector as some firms are not able to survive the downturn and changes in consumer food buying behaviour, including movement toward online shopping and enhanced demand for attributes associated with resiliency, such as local. On the other hand, online shopping may provide opportunities for small producers and processors to shorten supply chains and reach customers directly. In the long term, COVID-19 impacts on global commerce and developing country production are more uncertain and could influence poverty reduction. While COVID-19's impacts on North American agriculture should have minimal effect on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through food prices, the ongoing global trends in trade and agribusiness accelerated by the pandemic are relevant for achievement of the SDGs.
COVID‐19‐related disruptions led to a historic rise in the spread between livestock and wholesale meat prices. Concerns about concentration and allegations of anticompetitive behavior have led to several inquiries and civil suits by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Justice, with increases in price differentials serving as a focal point. This article notes the difference between price spreads and marketing margins, outlines corresponding economic theory, and describes the empirical evidence on wholesale meat and livestock price dynamics in the wake of COVID‐19 disruptions. At one point during the pandemic, beef and pork packers were both operating at about 60% of the previous year's processing volume. We explore how such a massive supply shock would be expected to affect marketing margins even in the absence of anti‐competitive behavior. Moreover, we document how margin measurements are critically sensitive to the selection of data and information utilized. Finally, we conclude with some discussion around policy proposals that would pit industry concentration against industry coordination and economies of scale.
Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), which first emerged in the United States in 2013, spread throughout the U.S. hog population. Limited preemptive knowledge impeded the understanding of PEDV introduction, spread, and prospective economic impacts in the United States. To assess these impacts, this article reviews the timeline of PEDV in the United States and the corresponding impacts. PEDV is a supply-impacting disease and is not demand inhibiting, as pork demand remained strong since PEDV first appeared. Pig losses reached significant levels during September 2013 through August 2014, with the majority of pork production impacts occurring in 2014. PEDV had differing impacts for subsectors of the pork industry. A budget model demonstrates that producers could have had pig losses and decreases in productivity proportionally smaller than price increases, resulting in net returns above what was expected before the major outbreak of PEDV. Previous literature is reviewed to identify the potential main industry beneficiaries of the PEDV outbreaks in the United States. As a result of reduced volumes of available pig and hog supplies, reductions in annual returns likely occurred for packers, processors, distributors, and retailers. In addition, pork consumers who experienced reduced-supply-induced pork-price increases were likely harmed directly by higher prices paid for pork and indirectly as prices of competing meats were also likely strengthened by PEDV. This article also identifies future considerations motivated by the appearance of PEDV in the United States, such as discussions of industry-wide efficiency and competitive advantage, the future role of PEDV vaccines, enhancement in biosecurity measures, and consumer perceptions of food safety and insecurity.
This article identifies preferences of US cow-calf producers for voluntary traceability systems to better identify the potential success of alternative voluntary traceability systems. Results suggest that notable heterogeneity exists between cow-calf producers in their preferences and the welfare effects of mandating traceability adoption. Producers are sensitive to price, managing entity and information requirements. We provide forecasts of voluntary participation rates under different price premium and discount scenarios that producers may face. This analysis has policy implications as success of voluntary traceability systems hinges critically upon cow-calf producer preferences. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2009 The Agricultural Economics Society.
The novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV2 (COVID‐19) severely disrupted the U.S. food supply chain. In its initial aftermath, and as we contemplate a potential reignition, the food supply chain industries, researchers, and policy makers search for evidence, causes, and consequences. This article uses publicly available data on the pork and egg industries and a survey of the turkey industry as a first step to document the impact of COVID‐19. Researchers can learn from the experiences in industries where disruptions evolve differently in the face of simultaneous supply‐ and demand‐side shocks and that stem from differences in structures of the supply chains. This early evidence is used to motivate future research needs and highlight opportunities for industry investments in resiliency strategies.
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