Likelihood methods are often difficult to use with large, irregularly sited spatial data sets, owing to the computational burden. Even for Gaussian models, exact calculations of the likelihood for "n" observations require "O"("n"-super-3) operations. Since any joint density can be written as a product of conditional densities based on some ordering of the observations, one way to lessen the computations is to condition on only some of the 'past' observations when computing the conditional densities. We show how this approach can be adapted to approximate the restricted likelihood and we demonstrate how an estimating equations approach allows us to judge the efficacy of the resulting approximation. Previous work has suggested conditioning on those past observations that are closest to the observation whose conditional density we are approximating. Through theoretical, numerical and practical examples, we show that there can often be considerable benefit in conditioning on some distant observations as well. Copyright 2004 Royal Statistical Society.
Context Psychiatric disorders are prevalent among incarcerated juveniles. Most juveniles eventually return to their communities, where they become the responsibility of the community mental health system. Yet, no large-scale study has examined psychiatric disorders after youth leave detention. Objective To examine changes in prevalence and persistence of disorders during the 5 years after detention, focusing on sex and racial/ethnic differences. Design Prospective longitudinal study with up to 5 interviews (N = 1829). To ensure representation of key demographic subgroups, the randomly selected sample was stratified by sex, race/ethnicity (African American, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic), age, and legal status (juvenile or adult court). Setting The Northwestern Juvenile Project, sampling youth from the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center, Chicago, Illinois. Participants Detained youth, 10 to 18 years at baseline interview. Main Outcome Measures At baseline, the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Version 2.3. At follow-ups, the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children, Version IV (Child and Young Adult versions) and the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, Version IV (substance use disorders and antisocial personality disorder). Results Five years after baseline, more than 45% of males and nearly 30% of females had one or more psychiatric disorders with associated impairment. Substance use disorders were the most common disorders; males, however, had higher rates over time (5 years after baseline, adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.61; 95% CI, 1.96–3.47). Non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics also had higher rates of substance use disorders compared with African Americans (respectively, AOR, 1.96, 95% CI, 1.54–2.49; AOR, 1.59, 95% CI, 1.24–2.03). Females had higher rates of major depression over time (AOR, 1.59, 95% CI, 1.22–2.08). Conclusions Although prevalence rates of most psychiatric disorders declined over time, a substantial proportion of delinquent youth continue to have disorders. There were notable sex and racial/ethnic differences in the prevalence and persistence of disorders.
BACKGROUND: Delinquent youth are at risk for early violent death after release from detention. However, few studies have examined risk factors for mortality. Previous investigations studied only serious offenders (a fraction of the juvenile justice population) and provided little data on females. METHODS: The Northwestern Juvenile Project is a prospective longitudinal study of health needs and outcomes of a stratified random sample of 1829 youth (657 females, 1172 males; 524 Hispanic, 1005 African American, 296 non-Hispanic white, 4 other race/ethnicity) detained between 1995 and 1998. Data on risk factors were drawn from interviews; death records were obtained up to 16 years after detention. We compared all-cause mortality rates and causes of death with those of the general population. Survival analyses were used to examine risk factors for mortality after youth leave detention. RESULTS: Delinquent youth have higher mortality rates than the general population to age 29 years (P < .05), irrespective of gender or race/ethnicity. Females died at nearly 5 times the general population rate (P < .05); Hispanic males and females died at 5 and 9 times the general population rates, respectively (P < .05). Compared with the general population, significantly more delinquent youth died of homicide and its subcategory, homicide by firearm (P < .05). Among delinquent youth, racial/ethnic minorities were at increased risk of homicide compared with non-Hispanic whites (P < .05). Significant risk factors for external-cause mortality and homicide included drug dealing (up to 9 years later), alcohol use disorder, and gang membership (up to a decade later). CONCLUSIONS: Delinquent youth are an identifiable target population to reduce disparities in early violent death.
Objective This manuscript examines the prevalence of childhood maltreatment and the relationship between childhood maltreatment and current psychiatric disorder in detained youths. Methods Clinical research interviewers assessed history of childhood maltreatment with the Child Maltreatment Assessment Profile and psychiatric diagnosis with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children version 2.3 in a stratified, random sample of 1829 detained youths at the Cook Country Juvenile Temporary Detention Center; final n=1735. History of maltreatment was also ascertained from records from the Cook County Court Child Protection Division. Results Over three-quarters of females and over two-thirds of males had a history of physical abuse (moderate or severe). More than 40% of females and 10% of males had a history of sexual abuse. Females and non-Hispanic whites had the highest prevalence rates of childhood maltreatment. Among females, sexual abuse was associated with every type of psychiatric disorder. For example, females who experienced abuse were 2.6 to 10.7 times more likely to have any disorder compared with females who had no maltreatment. Among males, maltreatment was associated with every disorder except anxiety disorders (odds ratios ranged from 1.9–7.9). Among those who were sexually abused, abuse with force was associated with anxiety and affective disorders for females and attention-deficit/hyperactivity (ADHD)/disruptive behavior and substance use disorders for males. Conclusions Psychiatrists and other mental health specialists must screen delinquent youth, not only for psychiatric disorders but also for past and ongoing maltreatment. Discharge planning should include protective and therapeutic services. Trauma-related mental health services should be available during incarceration.
Time-series studies have linked daily variations in nonaccidental deaths with daily variations in ambient particulate matter air pollution, while controlling for qualitatively larger influences of weather and season. Although time-series analyses typically include nonlinear terms for weather and season, questions remain as to whether models to date have completely controlled for these important predictors. In this paper, the authors use two flexible versions of distributed lag models to control extensively for the confounding effects of weather and season. One version builds on the current approach to controlling for weather, while the other version offers a new approach. The authors conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the particulate matter-mortality relation by applying these methods to the recently updated National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study database that comprises air pollution, weather, and mortality time series from 1987 to 2000 for 100 US cities. They combine city-specific estimates of the short-term effects of particulate matter on mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical model. They conclude that, within the broad classes of models considered, national average estimates of particulate matter relative risk are consistent with previous estimates from this study and are robust to model specification for weather and seasonal confounding.
A distributed lag model (DLagM) is a regression model that includes lagged exposure variables as covariates; its corresponding distributed lag (DL) function describes the relationship between the lag and the coefficient of the lagged exposure variable. DLagMs have recently been used in environmental epidemiology for quantifying the cumulative effects of weather and air pollution on mortality and morbidity. Standard methods for formulating DLagMs include unconstrained, polynomial, and penalized spline DLagMs. These methods may fail to take full advantage of prior information about the shape of the DL function for environmental exposures, or for any other exposure with effects that are believed to smoothly approach zero as lag increases, and are therefore at risk of producing suboptimal estimates. In this article, we propose a Bayesian DLagM (BDLagM) that incorporates prior knowledge about the shape of the DL function and also allows the degree of smoothness of the DL function to be estimated from the data. We apply our BDLagM to its motivating data from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study to estimate the short-term health effects of particulate matter air pollution on mortality from 1987 to 2000 for Chicago, Illinois. In a simulation study, we compare our Bayesian approach with alternative methods that use unconstrained, polynomial, and penalized spline DLagMs. We also illustrate the connection between BDLagMs and penalized spline DLagMs. Software for fitting BDLagM models and the data used in this article are available online.
Objective-. To examine the prevalence, development, and persistence of sex and drug behaviors that place delinquent youth at risk for human immunodeficiency virus and other sexually transmitted infections (HIV/STI).Methods-At the baseline interview, HIV/STI drug and sex risk behaviors were assessed in a stratified random sample of 800 juvenile detainees, aged 10 to 18 years. Participants were reinterviewed approximately 3 years later (mean [SD] follow-up, 3.2 [0.3] years; median follow-up, 3.1 years). The final sample in these analyses (n = 724) includes 316 females and 408 males, 393 African Americans, 198 Hispanics, 131 non-Hispanic whites, and 2 participants who self-identified as "other."Results-Nearly three quarters of youth engaged in one or more unprotected sexual risk behaviors at follow-up. Over 60% had engaged in 10 or more risk behaviors at their baseline interview, and nearly two thirds of them persisted in 10 or more risk behaviors at follow-up. Among youth living in the community, many behaviors were more prevalent at follow-up than at baseline. Among incarcerated youth, the opposite pattern prevailed. Development and persistence of HIV/STI risk behaviors differed by gender, race/ethnicity, and age, even after adjusting for incarceration status. Compared with females, males had higher prevalence rates of many HIV/STI risk behaviors and were more likely to persist in some behaviors and develop new ones. Yet, injection risk behaviors were more prevalent among females than males and were also more likely to develop and persist. Compared with persons younger than 18, persons 18 and older had higher prevalence rates of many HIV/STI risk behaviors at follow-up. Overall, there were few racial and ethnic differences in patterns of HIV/STI risk behaviors; most involved the initiation and persistence of substance use among nonHispanic whites and Hispanics.Conclusions-Because detained youth have a median stay of only 2 weeks, HIV/STI risk behaviors in delinquent youth are a community public health problem, not just a problem for the juvenile justice system. Improving the coordination among systems that provide HIV/STI interventions to youth -primary care, education, mental health, and juvenile justice -can reduce the prevalence of risk behaviors and substantially reduce the spread of HIV/STI in young people.Corresponding Author: Linda A. Teplin, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 710 N. Lakeshore Drive, Suite 900, Chicago, IL 60611. . psycholegal@northwestern.edu. NIH Public Access Author ManuscriptPediatrics. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2010 January 29. Published in final edited form as:Pediatrics. 10-14Minorities are also overrepresented in the juvenile justice system, where HIV/STI risk behaviors are prevalent. 15-20 Detained youth report more risk behaviors and initiate them at younger ages than do youth in the community.21 Detained youth are likely to be at continued risk for HIV infection as they age. Adults in p...
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