Bios is a nonstationary chaotic (equilibrium, periods, chaos, bios), thus offering a model for the causal creation of complexity.
Changes in population size of animal species (lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox), show diversification, episodic patterns in recurrence plots, novelty, nonrandom complexity, and asymmetric statistical distribution. These features of creativity characterize bios, a nonstationary pattern generated by bipolar feedback and multi-agent predator-prey simulations, absent in chaotic attractors. Population series show partial-autocorrelation, and the time series of the differences between consecutive terms also showed nonrandom patterns, differentiating bios from noise. As biotic patterns are found in quantum, cosmological, meteorological, biological, and economic processes, we propose that bipolar feedback is a generic process that contributes to the evolutionary generation of complexity at multiple levels of organization.2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 13: [47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] 2008
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the possibility of biotic patterns. In economics, markets are thought to tend to equilibrium with random and unpredictable deviations. However, an explosion of empirical work searching for possible chaos show an enormous amount of unexplained nonlinear structure. These observations led the authors to examine the possibility of biotic patterns in economics.Design/methodology/approachBios is defined as a causally generated creative process. It is the causal counterpart to random walk, just as chaos is the causal equivalent to randomness. Economic data consisting of time series from several categories, including banking, employment and population, and gross domestic product and components, were studied for diversification, recurrence, and predictability patterns characteristic of bios. Diversification was quantified as increased variance with embedding, recurrences were measured using newly developed computer programs, and predictability was measured with a nonlinear prediction method.FindingsDynamic analyses of the data show: episodic patterning and asymmetric statistical distribution, typical of bios; increase in variance with embedding (diversification), less recurrence than shuffled copies of the data (novelty), demonstrating creativity; consecutive recurrence; and patterning in the series of differences, indicating non‐random causation.Originality/valueThe demonstration of bios in empirical data indicates that the economy is non‐stationary, causal, and creative. This contradicts the notion that markets regulate themselves and tend to equilibrium, and the characterization of market variation as random or chaotic. Further economic crises may be avoided by acknowledging that financial markets are not bound within limits and can be modified into new forms by human action.
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