This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty‐first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas (“counties”) compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child‐women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease.

With declines in migration from Mexico, the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA) – El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala – are now responsible for some of the largest increases in the population density of Latinos in the United States. Using data from the 5‐year estimates of the 2016 American Community Survey and the Atlas of Rural and Small‐Town America, this article provides a spatial framework for settlement among NTCA immigrants in America. Findings illustrate that, unlike previous streams of Latino migration, which tended to be more agriculturally driven, NTCA immigrants are likely to choose settlement destinations in densely populated counties which support manufacturing rather than those which are farming dependent. We also find that while NTCA communities are predominant in new destinations like Prince Georges and Montgomery counties Maryland, they are also dominant in older Latino destinations like Harris County, Texas and Los Angeles county, California.

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