Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play vital roles in the western United States and related regions globally, not only producing heavy precipitation and flooding, but also providing beneficial water supply. This paper introduces a scale for the intensity and impacts of ARs. Its utility may be greatest where ARs are the most impactful storm type and hurricanes, nor’easters, and tornadoes are nearly nonexistent. Two parameters dominate the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of ARs: vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and AR duration [i.e., the duration of at least minimal AR conditions (IVT ≥ 250 kg m–1 s–1)]. The scale uses an observed or predicted time series of IVT at a given geographic location and is based on the maximum IVT and AR duration at that point during an AR event. AR categories 1–5 are defined by thresholds for maximum IVT (3-h average) of 250, 500, 750, 1,000, and 1,250 kg m–1 s–1, and by IVT exceeding 250 kg m–1 s–1 continuously for 24–48 h. If the AR event duration is less than 24 h, it is downgraded by one category. If it is longer than 48 h, it is upgraded one category. The scale recognizes that weak ARs are often mostly beneficial because they can enhance water supply and snowpack, while stronger ARs can become mostly hazardous, for example, if they strike an area with antecedent conditions that enhance vulnerability, such as burn scars or wet conditions. Extended durations can enhance impacts. Short durations can mitigate impacts.
This study utilizes multiple decades of daily streamflow data gathered in four major watersheds in western Washington to determine the meteorological conditions most likely to cause flooding in those watersheds. Two are located in the Olympic Mountains and the other two in the western Cascades; and each has uniquely different topographic characteristics. The flood analysis is based on the maximum daily flow observed during each water year (WY) at each site [i.e., the annual peak daily flow (APDF)], with an initial emphasis on the 12 most recent water years between WY1998 and 2009, and then focusing on a 30-year interval between WY1980 and 2009. The shorter time period coincides with relatively complete passive microwave satellite coverage of integrated water vapor (IWV) over the Pacific basin. The combination of IWV imagery and streamflow data highlights a close link between landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) and APDFs (i.e., 46 of the 48 APDFs occurred with landfalling ARs). To complement this approach, the three-decade time series of APDFs, which correspond to the availability of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset, are examined. The APDFs occur most often, and are typically largest in magnitude, from November to January. The NARR is used to assess the composite meteorological conditions associated with the 10 largest APDFs at each site during this 30-year period. Heavy precipitation fell during the top 10 APDFs, and anomalously high composite NARR melting levels averaged ;1.9 km MSL, which is primarily above the four basins of interest. Hence, on average, mostly rain rather than snow fell within these basins, leading to enhanced runoff. The flooding on the four watersheds shared common meteorological attributes, including the presence of landfalling ARs with anomalous warmth, strong low-level water vapor fluxes, and weak static stability. There were also key differences that modulated the orographic control of precipitation. Notably, two watersheds experienced their top 10 APDFs when the low-level flow was southwesterly, while the other two basins had their largest APDFs with west-southwesterly flow. These differences arose because of the region's complex topography, basin orientations, and related rain shadowing.
Since the second version of the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) treatment recommendations were published in 2015, therapeutic options for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have advanced considerably. This work reviews the literature since the previous recommendations (data published 2013–2020, including conference presentations between 2017 and 2020) and reports high-quality, evidence-based, domain-focused recommendations for medication selection in PsA developed by GRAPPA clinicians and patient research partners. The overarching principles for the management of adults with PsA were updated by consensus. Principles considering biosimilars and tapering of therapy were added, and the research agenda was revised. Literature searches covered treatments for the key domains of PsA: peripheral arthritis, axial disease, enthesitis, dactylitis, and skin and nail psoriasis; additional searches were performed for PsA-related conditions (uveitis and inflammatory bowel disease) and comorbidities. Individual subcommittees used a GRADE-informed approach, taking into account the quality of evidence for therapies, to generate recommendations for each of these domains, which were incorporated into an overall schema. Choice of therapy for an individual should ideally address all disease domains active in that patient, supporting shared decision-making. As safety issues often affect potential therapeutic choices, additional consideration was given to relevant comorbidities. These GRAPPA treatment recommendations provide up-to-date, evidence-based guidance on PsA management for clinicians and people with PsA.
Recent and historical events illustrate the vulnerabilities of the U.S. west to extremes in precipitation that result from a range of meteorological phenomena. This vision provides an approach to mitigating impacts of such weather and water extremes that is tailored to the unique meteorological conditions and user needs of the Western U.S. in the 21st Century. It includes observations for tracking, predicting, and managing the occurrence and impacts of major storms and is informed by a range of userrequirements, workshops, scientific advances, and technological demonstrations. The vision recommends innovations and enhancements to existing monitoring networks for rain, snow, snowmelt, flood, and their hydrometeorological precursor conditions, including radars to monitor winds aloft and precipitation, soil moisture sensors, stream gages, and SNOTEL enhancements, as well as entirely new observational tools. Key limitations include monitoring the fuel for heavy precipitation, storms over the eastern Pacific, precipitation distributions, and snow and soil moisture conditions. This article presents motivation and context, and describes key components, an implementation strategy, and expected benefits. This document supports a Resolution of the Western States Water Council for addressing extreme events.
Background:Since the 2015 GRAPPA treatment recommendations were published, therapeutic options and management strategies for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have advanced considerably.Objectives:The goal of the GRAPPA recommendations update is to develop high quality, evidence-based recommendations for the treatment of PsA, including related conditions and comorbidities.Methods:GRAPPA rheumatologists, dermatologists and patient research partners (PRPs) updated overarching principles for the management of adults with PsA by consensus. Principles considering use of biosimilars and tapering/discontinuing of therapy were added to this update. Systematic literature searches based on data publicly available from three databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL) were conducted from the end of the previous recommendations’ searches through August 2020. Additional abstract searches were performed for conference presentations in 2017-2020. Searches covered PsA treatments (peripheral arthritis, axial arthritis, enthesitis, dactylitis, skin, and nail disease). Additional searches were performed for related conditions (uveitis and IBD) and comorbidities evaluating their impact on safety and treatment outcomes. Individual groups assessed the risk of bias and applied the GRADE system to generate strong or conditional recommendations for therapies within the domain groups and for the management of comorbidities and related conditions. These recommendations were then incorporated into an overall treatment schema.Results:Updated, evidence-based treatment recommendations are shown (Table 1). Since 2015, many new medications have been incorporated. Additional results for older medications, such as methotrexate, have been published across PsA domains. Based on the evidence, the treatment recommendations developed by individual groups were incorporated into the overall schema including principles for management of arthritis, spondylitis, enthesitis, dactylitis, skin, and nail disease in PsA, and associated conditions (Figure 1). Choice of therapy for an individual should ideally address all of the domains that impact on that patient, supporting shared decision making with the patient involved. Additional consideration in the recommendations was given to key associated conditions and comorbidities as these often impact on therapy choice.Conclusion:These GRAPPA treatment recommendations provide up to date, evidence-based guidance to providers who manage and treat adult patients with PsA. These recommendations are based on domain-based strategy for PsA and supplemented by overarching principles developed by consensus of GRAPPA members.IndicationStrongForConditional ForConditionalAgainstStrongAgainstInsufficient evidencePeripheral Arthritis DMARD NaïvecsDMARDs, TNFi, PDE4i, IL-12/23i, IL-17i, IL-23i, JAKiNSAIDs, oral CS, IA CS,IL-6i,Peripheral Arthritis DMARD IRTNFi, IL-12/23i, IL-17i, IL-23i, JAKiPDE4i, other csDMARD, NSAIDs, oral CS, IA CS,IL-6i,Peripheral ArthritisbDMARD IRTNFi, IL-17i, IL-23i, JAKi,NSAIDs, oral CS, IA CS, IL-12/23i, PDE4i, CTLA-4-IgIL-6i,Axial arthritis, Biologic NaïveNSAIDs, Physiotherapy, simple analgesia, TNFi, IL-17i, JAKiCS SIJ injections, bisphosphonatescsDMARDs, IL-6i,IL-12/23i, IL-23iAxial PsA, Biologic IRNSAIDs, Physiotherapy, simple analgesia, TNFi, IL-17i, JAKi csDMARDs, IL-6i,IL-12/23i, IL-23iEnthesitisTNFi, IL-12/23i, IL-17i, PDE4i, IL-23i, JAKiNSAIDs, physiotherapy, CS injections, MTXIL-6i,Other csDMARDsDactylitisTNFi IL-12/23i, IL-17i, IL-23i, JAKi, PDE4iNSAIDs, CS injections, MTXOther csDMARDsPsoriasisTopicals, phototherapy, csDMARDs, TNFi, IL-12/23i, IL-17i, IL-23i, PDE4i, JAKi AcitretinNail psoriasisTNFi, IL12/23i, IL17i, IL23i, PDE4iTopical CS, tacrolimus and calcipotriol combination or individual therapies, Pulsed dye laser, csDMARDs, acitretin, JAKiTopical Cyclosporine / Tazarotene, Fumarate, Fumaric Acid Esters, UVA and UVB Phototherapy, AlitretinoinIBDTNFi (not ETN), IL-12/23i, JAKiIL-17iUveitisTNFi (not ETN)Disclosure of Interests:Laura C Coates Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Amgen, Biogen, Celgene, Gilead, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Medac, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novartis, Enrique Soriano Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb,GSK, Genzyme, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb,GSK, Genzyme, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Janssen, Novartis Pharma, Pfizer, Roche, and UCB, Nadia Corp: None declared, Heidi Bertheussen Consultant of: Pfizer, Kristina Callis-Duffin Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, Sienna Biopharmaceuticals, Stiefel Laboratories, UCB, Ortho Dermatologics, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Anaptys Bio, Boehringer Ingelheim., Cristiano Barbosa Campanholo Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Jeffrey Chau: None declared, Lihi Eder Consultant of: Abbvie, UCB, Janssen, Eli Lily, Pfizer, Novartis, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, UCB, Janssen, Eli Lily, Pfizer, Novartis, Daniel Fernandez Consultant of: Abbvie, UCB, Roche, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen and Brystol, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, UCB, Roche, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen and Brystol, Oliver FitzGerald Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Janssen and Pfizer Inc, Consultant of: BMS, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Janssen and Pfizer Inc, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, BMS, Eli Lilly, Novartis and Pfizer Inc, Amit Garg Consultant of: Abbvie, Amgen, Asana Biosciences, Bristol Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Incyte, InflaRx, Janssen, Pfizer, UCB, Viela Biosciences, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, Dafna D Gladman Consultant of: Abbvie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Jansen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Jansen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB, Niti Goel: None declared, Suzanne Grieb: None declared, Philip Helliwell Speakers bureau: Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, Consultant of: Eli Lilly, M Elaine Husni Consultant of: Abbvie, Amgen, Janssen, Novartis, Lilly, UCB, Regeneron, and Pfizer, Deepak Jadon Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Healthcare Celltrion, Janssen, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Healthcare Celltrion, Janssen, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Healthcare Celltrion, Janssen, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, UCB, Arnon Katz: None declared, Dhruvkumar Laheru: None declared, John Latella: None declared, Ying Ying Leung Speakers bureau: Novartis, AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Consultant of: Pfizer and Boehringer Ingelheim, Grant/research support from: Pfizer and conference support from AbbVie, Christine Lindsay Shareholder of: Amgen, Employee of: Aurinia pharmaceuticals, Ennio Lubrano Speakers bureau: Alfa-Sigma, Abbvie, Galapagos, Janssen Cilag, Lilly., Consultant of: Alfa-Sigma, Abbvie, Galapagos, Janssen Cilag, Lilly., Luis Mazzuoccolo Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Amgen, Novartis, Elli Lilly, Jansen, Consultant of: Abbvie, Amgen, Novartis, Elli Lilly, Jansen, Roland McDonald: None declared, Philip J Mease Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, SUN and UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, SUN and UCB, Denis O’Sullivan: None declared, Alexis Ogdie Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Celgene, Corrona, Gilead, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, and Pfizer, Grant/research support from: Novartis and Pfizer and Amgen, Wendy Olsder: None declared, Lori Schick: None declared, Ingrid Steinkoenig: None declared, Maarten de Wit Consultant of: AbbVie, BMS, Celgene, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Danielle van der Windt: None declared, Arthur Kavanaugh Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Gilead Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Gilead Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB
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