Most discoveries in materials science have been made empirically, typically through one-variable-at-a-time (Edisonian) experimentation. The characteristics of materials-based systems are, however, neither simple nor uncorrelated. In a device such as an organic photovoltaic, for example, the level of complexity is high due to the sheer number of components and processing conditions, and thus, changing one variable can have multiple unforeseen effects due to their interconnectivity. Design of Experiments (DoE) is ideally suited for such multivariable analyses: by planning one's experiments as per the principles of DoE, one can test and optimize several variables simultaneously, thus accelerating the process of discovery and optimization while saving time and precious laboratory resources. When combined with machine learning, the consideration of one's data in this manner provides a different perspective for optimization and discovery, akin to climbing out of a narrow valley of serial (one-variable-at-a-time) experimentation, to a mountain ridge with a 360° view in all directions.

A method to predict the crystal structure of equiatomic ternary compositions based only on the constituent elements was developed using cluster resolution feature selection (CR-FS) and support vector machine (SVM) classification. The supervised machine-learning model was first trained with 1037 individual compounds that adopt the most populated ternary 1:1:1 structure types (TiNiSi-, ZrNiAl-, PbFCl-, LiGaGe-, YPtAs-, UGeTe-, and LaPtSi-type) and then validated using an additional 519 compounds. The CR-FS algorithm improves class discrimination and indicates that 113 variables including size, electronegativity, number of valence electrons, and position on the periodic table (group number) influence the structure preference. The final model prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 97.3%, 93.9%, and 96.9%, respectively, establishing that this method is capable of reliably predicting the crystal structure given only its composition. The power of CR-FS and SVM classification is further demonstrated by segregating the crystal structure of polymorphs, specifically to examine polymorphism in TiNiSi- and ZrNiAl-type structures. Analyzing 19 compositions that are experimentally reported in both structure types, this machine-learning model correctly identifies, with high confidence (>0.7), the low-temperature polymorph from its high-temperature form. Interestingly, machine learning also reveals that certain compositions cannot be clearly differentiated and lie in a "confused" region (0.3-0.7 confidence), suggesting that both polymorphs may be observed in a single sample at certain experimental conditions. The ensuing synthesis and characterization of TiFeP adopting both TiNiSi- and ZrNiAl-type structures in a single sample, even after long annealing times (3 months), validate the occurrence of the region of structural uncertainty predicted by machine learning.