Standard mathematical models for analyzing the spread of a disease are usually either epidemiological or immunological. The former are mostly ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based models that use classes like susceptibles, recovered, infectives, latently infected, and others to describe the evolution of an epidemic in a population. Some of them also use structure variables, such as size or age. The latter describe the evolution of the immune system/pathogen in the infected host — evolution that usually results in death, recovery or chronic infection. There is valuable insight to be gained from combining these two types of models, as that may lead to a better understanding of the severity of an epidemic. In this article, we propose a new type of model that combines the two by using variables of immunological nature as structure variables for epidemiological models. We prove the well-posedness of the proposed model under some restrictions and conclude with a look at a practical application of the model.
We study an epidemic model that incorporates risk-taking behaviour as a response to a perceived low prevalence of infection that follows from the administration of an effective treatment or vaccine. We assume that knowledge about the number of infected, recovered and vaccinated individuals has an effect in the contact rate between susceptible and infectious individuals. We show that, whenever optimism prevails in the risk behaviour response, the fate of an epidemic may change from disease clearance to disease persistence. Moreover, under certain conditions on the parameters, increasing the efficiency of vaccine and/or treatment has the unwanted effect of increasing the epidemic reproductive number, suggesting a wider range of diseases may become endemic due to risk-taking alone. These results indicate that the manner in which treatment/vaccine effectiveness is advertised can have an important influence on how the epidemic unfolds.
Many models of mutualism have been proposed and studied individually. In this paper, we develop a general class of models of facultative mutualism that covers many of such published models. Using mild assumptions on the growth and self-limiting functions, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the boundedness of model solutions and prove the global stability of a unique coexistence equilibrium whenever it exists. These results allow for a greater flexibility in the way each mutualist species can be modelled and avoid the need to analyse any single model of mutualism in isolation. Our generalization also allows each of the mutualists to be subject to a weak Allee effect. Moreover, we find that if one of the interacting species is subject to a strong Allee effect, then the mutualism can overcome it and cause a unique coexistence equilibrium to be globally stable.
We provide a generalization of the logistic two-sex model with ephemeral pair-bonds and with stable couples without assuming any specific mathematical form for fertility, mortality and the mating function. In particular, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the fertility/mortality density-dependent ratio that ensures the existence of the logistic behaviour. Several differences and similarities between the two models are also provided.
We re-visit the recently published paper on a generalization of the two-sex logistic model by Maxin and Sega [A generalized two-sex logistic model, J. Biol. Dyn. 7(1) (2013), pp. 302-318]. We show that the logistic assumption of a non-increasing birth rate can be replaced by a more general assumption of a non-increasing ratio between the female/male birth and mortality rate. In this note we indicate the changes necessary in the proofs of the theorems in [D. Maxin and L. Sega, A generalized two-sex logistic model, J. Biol. Dyn. 7(1) (2013), pp. 302--318] and discuss several situations where this new assumption is useful.
This logistic model includes three age groups. Juveniles do not reproduce, and old individuals reproduce at a reduced rate. Pairings between individuals of different fertility rates may lead to multiple equilibria and bistability: the total population converges to different limits depending on its initial size. The behavior is correlated with transition rates from high to low fertility groups and with the frequency of pairing among the various groups of reproduction level. The proportions of adults at equilibrium are roots of a quartic polynomial, alternating sinks and saddles. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bistability are provided for a simplified model.
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