10As the world's largest distributed store of freshwater, groundwater plays a central role in 11 sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. 12The strategic importance of groundwater to global water and food security will intensify 13 under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts, floods) 14 increase variability in soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent 15 research assessing climate impacts on groundwater through natural and human-induced 16 processes as well as groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system.

International audienceAquifer overexploitation could significantly impact crop production in the United States because 60% of irrigation relies on groundwater. Groundwater depletion in the irrigated High Plains and California Central Valley accounts for ∼50% of groundwater depletion in the United States since 1900. A newly developed High Plains recharge map shows that high recharge in the northern High Plains results in sustainable pumpage, whereas lower recharge in the central and southern High Plains has resulted in focused depletion of 330 km3 of fossil groundwater, mostly recharged during the past 13,000 y. Depletion is highly localized with about a third of depletion occurring in 4% of the High Plains land area. Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Reducing irrigation withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifer but would not result in sustainable management of this fossil groundwater. The Central Valley is a more dynamic, engineered system, with north/south diversions of surface water since the 1950s contributing to ∼7× higher recharge. However, these diversions are regulated because of impacts on endangered species. A newly developed Central Valley Hydrologic Model shows that groundwater depletion since the 1960s, totaling 80 km3, occurs mostly in the south (Tulare Basin) and primarily during droughts. Increasing water storage through artificial recharge of excess surface water in aquifers by up to 3 km3 shows promise for coping with droughts and improving sustainability of groundwater resources in the Central Valley

[1] The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model's weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local-and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the b factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as the b factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world's 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction.

Proliferation of evapotranspiration (ET) products warrants comparison of these products. The study objective was to assess uncertainty in ET output from four land surface models (LSMs), Noah, Mosaic, VIC, and SAC in NLDAS-2, two remote sensing-based products, MODIS and AVHRR, and GRACE-inferred ET from a water budget with precipitation from PRISM, monitored runoff, and total water storage change (TWSC) from GRACE satellites. The three cornered hat method, which does not require a priori knowledge of the true ET value, was used to estimate ET uncertainties. In addition, TWSC or total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE was compared with water budget estimates of TWSC from a flux-based approach or TWSA from a storage-based approach. The analyses were conducted using data from three regions (humid-arid) in the South Central United States as case studies. Uncertainties in ET are lowest in LSM ET ( 5 mm/mo), moderate in MODIS or AVHRR-based ET (10-15 mm/mo), and highest in GRACEinferred ET (20-30 mm/month). There is a trade-off between spatial resolution and uncertainty, with lower uncertainty in the coarser-resolution LSM ET ( 14 km) relative to higher uncertainty in the finer-resolution ( 1-8 km) RS ET. Root-mean-square (RMS) of uncertainties in water budget estimates of TWSC is about half of RMS of uncertainties in GRACE-derived TWSC for each of the regions. Future ET estimation should consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of LSMs and satellite-based products to constrain uncertainties.

International audiencePopulations in Central Asia are heavily dependent on snow and glacier melt for their water supplies. Changes to the glaciers in the main mountain range in this region, the Tien Shan, have been reported over the past decade. However, reconstructions over longer, multi-decadal timescales and the mechanisms underlying these variations—both required for reliable future projections—are not well constrained. Here we use three ensembles of independent approaches based on satellite gravimetry, laser altimetry, and glaciological modelling to estimate the total glacier mass change in the Tien Shan. Results from the three approaches agree well, and allow us to reconstruct a consistent time series of annual mass changes for the past 50 years at the resolution of individual glaciers. We detect marked spatial and temporal variability in mass changes. We estimate the overall decrease in total glacier area and mass from 1961 to 2012 to be 18 ± 6% and 27 ± 15%, respectively. These values correspond to a total area loss of 2,960 ± 1,030 km2, and an average glacier mass-change rate of −5.4 ± 2.8 Gt yr−1. We suggest that the decline is driven primarily by summer melt and, possibly, linked to the combined effects of general climatic warming and circulation variability over the north Atlantic and north Pacific

There is increasing interest in using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to remotely monitor groundwater storage variations; however, comparisons with ground‐based well data are limited but necessary to validate satellite data processing, especially when the study area is close to or below the GRACE footprint. The Central Valley is a heavily irrigated region with large‐scale groundwater depletion during droughts. Here we compare updated estimates of groundwater storage changes in the California Central Valley using GRACE satellites with storage changes from groundwater level data. A new processing approach was applied that optimally uses available GRACE and water balance component data to extract changes in groundwater storage. GRACE satellites show that groundwater depletion totaled ∼31.0 ± 3.0 km3 for Groupe de Recherche de Geodesie Spatiale (GRGS) satellite data during the drought from October 2006 through March 2010. Groundwater storage changes from GRACE agreed with those from well data for the overlap period (April 2006 through September 2009) (27 km3 for both). General correspondence between GRACE and groundwater level data validates the methodology and increases confidence in use of GRACE satellites to monitor groundwater storage changes.

[1] The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide observations of water storage variation at regional scales. However, when focusing on a region of interest, limited spatial resolution and noise contamination can cause estimation bias and spatial leakage, problems that are exacerbated as the region of interest approaches the GRACE resolution limit of a few hundred km. Reliable estimates of water storage variations in small basins require compromises between competing needs for noise suppression and spatial resolution. The objective of this study was to quantitatively investigate processing methods and their impacts on bias, leakage, GRACE noise reduction, and estimated total error, allowing solution of the trade-offs. Among the methods tested is a recently developed concentration algorithm called spatiospectral localization, which optimizes the basin shape description, taking into account limited spatial resolution. This method is particularly suited to retrieval of basin-scale water storage variations and is effective for small basins. To increase confidence in derived methods, water storage variations were calculated for both CSR (Center for Space Research) and GRGS (Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale) GRACE products, which employ different processing strategies. The processing techniques were tested on the intensively monitored High Plains Aquifer (450,000 km 2 area), where application of the appropriate optimal processing method allowed retrieval of water storage variations over a portion of the aquifer as small as ∼200,000 km 2 .

Recent developments in mascon (mass concentration) solutions for GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data have significantly increased the spatial localization and amplitude of recovered terrestrial Total Water Storage anomalies (TWSA); however, land hydrology applications have been limited. Here we compare TWSA from April 2002 through March 2015 from (1) newly released GRACE mascons from the Center for Space Research (CSR‐M) with (2) NASA JPL mascons (JPL‐M), and with (3) CSR Tellus gridded spherical harmonics rescaled (sf) (CSRT‐GSH.sf) in 176 river basins, ∼60% of the global land area. Time series in TWSA mascons (CSR‐M and JPL‐M) and spherical harmonics are highly correlated (rank correlation coefficients mostly >0.9). The signal from long‐term trends (up to ±20 mm/yr) is much less than that from seasonal amplitudes (up to 250 mm). Net long‐term trends, summed over all 176 basins, are similar for CSR and JPL mascons (66–69 km3/yr) but are lower for spherical harmonics (∼14 km3/yr). Long‐term TWSA declines are found mostly in irrigated basins (−41 to −69 km3/yr). Seasonal amplitudes agree among GRACE solutions, increasing confidence in GRACE‐based seasonal fluctuations. Rescaling spherical harmonics significantly increases agreement with mascons for seasonal fluctuations, but less for long‐term trends. Mascons provide advantages relative to spherical harmonics, including (1) reduced leakage from land to ocean increasing signal amplitude, and (2) application of geophysical data constraints during processing with little empirical postprocessing requirements, making it easier for nongeodetic users. Results of this product intercomparison should allow hydrologists to better select suitable GRACE solutions for hydrologic applications.