Individual‐based models (IBMs) allow realistic and flexible modelling of ecological systems, but their parameterization with empirical data is statistically and computationally challenging. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been proposed as an efficient approach for inference with IBMs, but its applicability to data on natural populations has not been yet fully explored. We construct an IBM for the metapopulation dynamics of a species inhabiting a fragmented patch network, and develop an ABC method for parameterization of the model. We consider several scenarios of data availability from count data to combination of mark‐recapture and genetic data. We analyse both simulated and real data on white‐starred robin (Pogonocichla stellata), a passerine bird living in montane forest environment in Kenya, and assess how the amount and type of data affect the estimates of model parameters and indicators of population state. The indicators of the population state could be reliably estimated using the ABC method, but full parameterization was not achieved due to strong posterior correlations between model parameters. While the combination of the data types did not provide more accurate estimates for most of the indicators of population state or model parameters than the most informative data type (ringing data or genetic data) alone, the combined data allowed robust simultaneous estimation of all unknown quantities. Our results show that ABC methods provide a powerful and flexible technique for parameterizing complex IBMs with multiple data sources, and assessing the dynamics of the population in a robust manner.
The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long-standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15-year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta-Ne to meta-Nc was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while Ne /Nc ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low Nc in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects.
Habitat size, quality and isolation determine the genetic structure and diversity of populations and may influence their evolutionary potential and vulnerability to stochastic events. Small and isolated populations are subject to strong genetic drift and can lose much of their genetic diversity due to stochastic fixation and loss of alleles. The mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster, a cloud forest bird species, is exclusively found in the high mountains of East Africa. We analysed 13 polymorphic microsatellites for 213 individuals of this species that were sampled at different points in time in three mountain massifs differing in habitat size, isolation and habitat degradation. We analysed the genetic differentiation among mountain populations and estimated the effective population sizes. Our results indicate three mountain‐specific genetic clusters. Time cohorts did not show genetic divergences, suggesting that populations are large enough to prevent strong drift effects. Effective population sizes were higher in larger and geographically interconnected habitat patches. Our findings underline the relevance of ecological barriers even for mobile species and show the importance of investigating different estimators of population size, including both approaches based on single and multiple time‐points of sampling, for the inference of the demographic status of a population. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114, 828–836.
In cooperatively breeding species, group members may derive multiple benefits from helping to raise other individuals’ offspring, yet not all individuals do so. In this study, we tested predictions from the “kin selection”, “pay-to-stay”, “group augmentation” and “skills” hypotheses, to explain why group members feed nestlings of breeding placid greenbuls (Phyllastrephus placidus). In our study population, about 70% of the breeding pairs were accompanied by subordinates, and in 60% of these cases at least one subordinate helped in provisioning nestlings. In total, 80% of the subordinates were related to one or both breeders. In accordance with the “kin selection” hypothesis, and contrary to the “pay-to-stay” hypothesis, all the helpers were first-order kin of the breeding female (although relatedness to the breeding male did not explain variation in helping) and the presence of helpers was associated with increased survival of the breeding pair. However, the propensity to help varied among group members, as 46% of group members related to the breeding female did not feed nestlings. Younger helpers fed offspring more often than older ones, supporting the “skills” and “group augmentation” hypotheses. However, support for the “group augmentation” hypothesis was mixed since subordinate sex and group size did not explain additional variation in helping propensity and effort. We argue that in addition to indirect and direct benefits, also the costs of helping as well as other types of helping aside from provisioning must be considered to better understand variation in helping behavior.
Socially monogamous females regularly mate with males outside the pair bond. The prevailing explanation for this behavior is that females gain genetic benefits resulting from increased fitness of extra-pair offspring. Furthermore, because of the risk of reduced paternal care in response to cuckoldry, females are expected to seek extra-pair copulations when they can rear offspring with little help from their social partner (“constrained female” hypothesis). We tested these hypotheses and analyzed variation in paternal care in the Afrotropical, facultative cooperative breeding placid greenbul (Phyllastrephus placidus). Overall, approximately 50% of the offspring resulted from extra-pair (and extra-group) mating. Identified extra-pair males were in most cases neighboring dominant males, yet never within-group subordinates. As predicted by the constrained female hypothesis, the occurrence of extra-pair paternity (EPP) increased with the number of cooperative helpers (and not with total group size). However, dominant males did not adjust their food provisioning rates in response to EPP. Although extra-pair males were more strongly related to the dominant female and less heterozygous than the latter’s social mate, this did not result in more inbred extra-pair offspring, likely because identified extra-pair males were not representative of the extra-pair male population. While earlier studies on EPP mainly focused on male genetic quality, results from this study provide evidence that female’s social context may affect extra-pair strategies too.
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