Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Rising anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere is accompanied by an increase in oceanic CO 2 and a concomitant decline in seawater pH (ref. 1). This phenomenon, known as ocean acidification (OA), has been experimentally shown to impact the biology and ecology of numerous animals and plants 2 , most notably those that precipitate calcium carbonate skeletons, such as reef-building corals 3 . Volcanically acidified water at Maug, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) is equivalent to near-future predictions for what coral reef ecosystems will experience worldwide due to OA. We provide the first chemical and ecological assessment of this unique site and show that acidification-related stress significantly influences the abundance and diversity of coral reef taxa, leading to the often-predicted shift from a coral to an algae-dominated state 4,5 . This study provides field evidence that acidification can lead to macroalgae dominance on reefs.Coral reefs contain the highest concentration of biodiversity in the marine realm, with abundant flora and fauna that form the backbone of complex and dynamic ecosystems 6 . From an anthropocentric standpoint, coral reefs provide valuable goods and services, supporting fisheries and tourism, and protect shorelines from storms 7 . Recently, widespread coral mortality has led to the flattening of reef frameworks and the loss of essential habitat 4 . This trend will be accelerated by ocean acidification (OA), as calcification is impaired, and dissolution is accelerated 8,9 . Furthermore, experimental evidence suggests that OA could enhance the growth 10 and competitive ability of fleshy macroalgae 11 . This OA-induced shift in the competitive balance between corals and algae could exacerbate direct effects of OA on calcifying reef species 12 and lead to ecosystem shifts favouring non-reef-forming algae over coral 4,5 . Understanding the individual responses of taxa to OA, as well as alteration of multi-species assemblages, is therefore critical to predicting ecosystem persistence and managing reef health in an era of global change.At present, much of what is known concerning the impacts of OA on coral reef biota has been laboratory-based experimental work focused on the responses of select taxa 2 . This has been expanded to mesocosm-based studies, allowing manipulation of groups of organisms and investigation of community responses 13 .Although these multi-species experimental studies are vital, they cannot recreate the variability (physical, chemical, biological) of real-world reef systems 14 . In an effort to overcome the limitations of laboratory studies, real-world low-saturation-state (Ω) sites have been investigated. In the eastern Pacific, nutrient and CO 2 -enriched upwelled waters impact coral calcification and the precipitation of carbonate cements, influencing the distribution of reefs 15 . In Mexico, freshwater springs depress Ω, influencing coral calcification and species distributions 16 . In Palau, restricted circulation and biological activity contribute to ...

Identifying which factors lead to coral bleaching resistance is a priority given the global decline of coral reefs with ocean warming. During the second year of back‐to‐back bleaching events in the Florida Keys in 2014 and 2015, we characterized key environmental and biological factors associated with bleaching resilience in the threatened reef‐building coral Orbicella faveolata. Ten reefs (five inshore, five offshore, 179 corals total) were sampled during bleaching (September 2015) and recovery (May 2016). Corals were genotyped with 2bRAD and profiled for algal symbiont abundance and type. O. faveolata at the inshore sites, despite higher temperatures, demonstrated significantly higher bleaching resistance and better recovery compared to offshore. The thermotolerant Durusdinium trenchii (formerly Symbiondinium trenchii) was the dominant endosymbiont type region‐wide during initial (78.0% of corals sampled) and final (77.2%) sampling; >90% of the nonbleached corals were dominated by D. trenchii. 2bRAD host genotyping found no genetic structure among reefs, but inshore sites showed a high level of clonality. While none of the measured environmental parameters were correlated with bleaching, 71% of variation in bleaching resistance and 73% of variation in the proportion of D. trenchii was attributable to differences between genets, highlighting the leading role of genetics in shaping natural bleaching patterns. Notably, D. trenchii was rarely dominant in O. faveolata from the Florida Keys in previous studies, even during bleaching. The region‐wide high abundance of D. trenchii was likely driven by repeated bleaching associated with the two warmest years on record for the Florida Keys (2014 and 2015). On inshore reefs in the Upper Florida Keys, O. faveolata was most abundant, had the highest bleaching resistance, and contained the most corals dominated by D. trenchii, illustrating a causal link between heat tolerance and ecosystem resilience with global change.