BackgroundAlthough loss to follow-up after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is increasingly recognized, little is known about pre-treatment losses to care (PTLC) after an initial positive HIV test. Our objective was to determine PTLC in newly identified HIV-infected individuals in South Africa.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe assembled the South African Test, Identify and Link (STIAL) Cohort of persons presenting for HIV testing at two sites offering HIV and CD4 count testing and HIV care in Durban, South Africa. We defined PTLC as failure to have a CD4 count within 8 weeks of HIV diagnosis. We performed multivariate analysis to identify factors associated with PTLC. From November 2006 to May 2007, of 712 persons who underwent HIV testing and received their test result, 454 (64%) were HIV-positive. Of those, 206 (45%) had PTLC. Infected patients were significantly more likely to have PTLC if they lived ≥10 kilometers from the testing center (RR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.11–1.71), had a history of tuberculosis treatment (RR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.00–1.58), or were referred for testing by a health care provider rather than self-referred (RR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.22–2.13). Patients with one, two or three of these risks for PTLC were 1.88, 2.50 and 3.84 times more likely to have PTLC compared to those with no risk factors.Conclusions/SignificanceNearly half of HIV-infected persons at two high prevalence sites in Durban, South Africa, failed to have CD4 counts following HIV diagnosis. These high rates of pre-treatment loss to care highlight the urgent need to improve rates of linkage to HIV care after an initial positive HIV test.

Key Points Question How does an artificial intelligence (AI)–enabled decision aid generated using patient-reported outcome measurements compare with education only on decision quality, patient satisfaction, and functional outcomes among individuals with knee osteoarthritis considering total knee replacement? Findings This randomized clinical trial of 129 patients demonstrated statistically significant improvement in decision quality, level of shared decision-making, patient satisfaction, and functional outcomes in patients using an AI-enabled decision aid. Meaning These findings suggest that AI-enabled decision aids incorporating patient-reported outcome measurement data provide a personalized, data-driven approach to shared decision-making for the surgical management of knee osteoarthritis.

Objective To evaluate rates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation within 12 months of a new HIV diagnosis in Durban, South Africa. Design Prospective observational cohort. Methods Adults (≥18 years) were enrolled before HIV testing at two outpatient clinics into the South African Test, Identify and Link cohort. Both sites offer comprehensive HIV care. HIV test results, CD4 cell counts, dates of ART initiation and dates of death were collected from medical records and 12-month patient/family interviews were conducted. ART eligibility was defined as a CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/μl within 90 days of HIV diagnosis. The primary endpoint was ART initiation within 12 months for ART-eligible subjects. Results From November 2006 to October 2008, 1474 newly diagnosed HIV-infected outpatients were enrolled, 1012 (69%) of whom underwent CD4 cell count testing within 90 days. The median CD4 cell count was 159 cells/μl (interquartile range 65–299). Of those who underwent CD4 cell count testing, 538 (53%) were ART-eligible. Only 210 (39%) eligible enrollees were known to have initiated ART within 12 months. Among ART-eligible subjects, there were 108 known deaths; 82% occurred before ART initiation or with unknown ART initiation status. Men [rate ratio (RR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1–1.5] and subjects without an HIV-infected family member/friend (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.7) were more likely not to start ART. Conclusion Less than half of ART-eligible subjects started ART within 12 months. Substantial attrition and mortality follow HIV diagnosis before ART initiation in Durban, South Africa. Major efforts directed towards earlier HIV diagnosis, effective linkage to care and timely ART initiation are urgently needed.

Based on data from West Africa, Elena Losina and colleagues predict that interventions to reduce dropout rates from HIV treatment programs (such as eliminating copayments) will be cost-effective.

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BackgroundAlthough shared decision making (SDM) is the preferred model of making complex treatment decisions with patients, patients' and doctors' attitudes towards SDM for advance care planning are unknown.ObjectiveWe sought to: (i) gain general insights into the current practice of SDM and attitudes about patient involvement, and (ii) gain specific insights into experience with, and attitudes about, SDM for advance care planning.DesignQualitative analysis of face‐to‐face semi‐structured interviews.Setting and participantsPatients with chronic lung disease and their doctors at a New York City public hospital.ResultsAlthough patients described participation in decision making, many deferred the final decision to their doctors. Doctors indicated a preference for SDM but expressed barriers including perceived lack of patient understanding and lack of patient empowerment. With regard to end‐of‐life discussions, patients were generally open to having these discussions with their doctors, although their openness sometimes depended on the circumstance (i.e. end‐of‐life discussions may be more acceptable to patients for whom the chance of dying is high). Doctors reported engaging in end‐of‐life treatment decisions with their patients, although expressed the need for conversations to take place earlier, in advance of acute illness, and identified a lack of prognostic estimates as one barrier to engaging in this discussion.ConclusionsDoctors should explore their patients' attitudes regarding end‐of‐life discussions and preferences for decision‐making styles. There is a need for tools such as decision aids which can empower patients to participate in decision making and can support doctors with prognostic estimates pertinent to individual patients.

Background HIV remains a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Kenya. The effects of behaviors that accompany unhealthy alcohol consumption are a pervasive risk factor for HIV transmission and progression. Our objective was to estimate the portion of HIV infections attributable to unhealthy alcohol use and to evaluate the impact of hypothetical interventions directed at unhealthy alcohol use on HIV infections and deaths. Methods We estimated outcomes over a time horizon of 20 years using a computer simulation of the Kenyan population. This computer simulation integrates a compartmental model of HIV transmission with a mechanistic model of HIV progression that was previously validated in sub-Saharan Africa. Integration of the transmission and progression models allows simultaneous consideration of alcohol’s effects on HIV transmission and progression (e.g. lowering antiretroviral adherence may increase transmission risk by elevating viral load, and may simultaneously increase progression by increasing the likelihood of AIDS). The simulation considers important aspects of heterogeneous sexual mixing patterns, including assortativeness of partners by age and activity level, age-discordant relationships, and high activity subgroups. Outcomes included number of new HIV infections, number of AIDS deaths, and infectivity (number of new infections per infected person per year). Results Our model estimated that the effects of behaviors accompanying unhealthy alcohol consumption are responsible for 13.0% of new HIV infections in Kenya. An alcohol intervention with effectiveness similar to that observed in a published randomized controlled trial of a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT)-based intervention in Kenya (45% reduction in unhealthy alcohol consumption) could prevent nearly half of these infections, reducing their number by 69,858 and reducing AIDS deaths by 17,824 over 20 years. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions with respect to the magnitude of alcohol’s underlying effects on condom use, antiretroviral therapy adherence, and STI prevalence Conclusions A substantial number of new HIV infections in Kenya are attributable to unhealthy alcohol use. An alcohol intervention with the effectiveness observed in a published randomized controlled trial has the potential to reduce infections over 20 years by nearly 5 percent and avert over 15,000 deaths related to HIV.

Background Increased eligibility guidelines of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may lead to greater routine viral load monitoring. However, in resource-constrained settings, the additional resources required by greater routine viral load monitoring may impair ability to comply with expanded eligibility guidelines for ART. Objective We use a published validated computer simulation of the HIV epidemic in East African countries (expanded to include transmission as well as disease progression) to evaluate the cost–effectiveness of routine viral load monitoring. Methods We explored alternative scenarios regarding cost, frequency, and switching threshold of routine viral load monitoring (including every 6 or every 12 months; and switching thresholds of 1000, or 10 000 copies/ml), as well as alternative scenarios regarding ART initiation (200, 350, 500 cells/μl, and no CD4+ cell threshold). For each ART initiation strategy, we sought to identify the viral load monitoring strategy at which the incremental cost–effectiveness ratio (ICER) of more frequent routine viral load testing became more favorable than the ICER of more expansive ART eligibility. Cost inputs were based on data provided by the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH), and disease progression inputs were based on prior published work. We used a discount rate of 3%, a time horizon of 20 years, and a payer perspective. Results Across a wide range of scenarios, and even when considering the beneficial effect of virological monitoring at reducing HIV transmission, earlier ART initiation conferred far greater health benefits for resources spent than routine virological testing, with ICERs of approximately $1000 to $2000 for earlier ART initiation, versus ICERs of approximately $5000 to $25 000 for routine virological monitoring. ICERs of viral load testing were insensitive to the cost of the viral load test, because most of the costs originated from the downstream higher costs of later regimens. ICERs of viral load testing were very sensitive to the relative cost of second-line compared with first-line regimens, assuming favorable value when the costs of these regimens were equal. Conclusion If all HIV patients are not yet treated with ART starting at 500 cells/μl and costs of second regimens remain substantially more expensive than first-line regimens, resources would buy more population health if they are spent on earlier ART rather than being spent on routine virological testing.