The minimum AI value in a PVI segment is independently predictive of reconnection of that segment at repeat electrophysiology study. Higher AI and FTI values are required for anterior/roof segments than for posterior/inferior segments to prevent reconnection.

SummaryBackgroundViral meningitis is increasingly recognised, but little is known about the frequency with which it occurs, or the causes and outcomes in the UK. We aimed to determine the incidence, causes, and sequelae in UK adults to improve the management of patients and assist in health service planning.MethodsWe did a multicentre prospective observational cohort study of adults with suspected meningitis at 42 hospitals across England. Nested within this study, in the National Health Service (NHS) northwest region (now part of NHS England North), was an epidemiological study. Patients were eligible if they were aged 16 years or older, had clinically suspected meningitis, and either underwent a lumbar puncture or, if lumbar puncture was contraindicated, had clinically suspected meningitis and an appropriate pathogen identified either in blood culture or on blood PCR. Individuals with ventricular devices were excluded. We calculated the incidence of viral meningitis using data from patients from the northwest region only and used these data to estimate the population-standardised number of cases in the UK. Patients self-reported quality-of-life and neuropsychological outcomes, using the EuroQol EQ-5D-3L, the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), and the Aldenkamp and Baker neuropsychological assessment schedule, for 1 year after admission.Findings1126 patients were enrolled between Sept 30, 2011, and Sept 30, 2014. 638 (57%) patients had meningitis: 231 (36%) cases were viral, 99 (16%) were bacterial, and 267 (42%) had an unknown cause. 41 (6%) cases had other causes. The estimated annual incidence of viral meningitis was 2·73 per 100 000 and that of bacterial meningitis was 1·24 per 100 000. The median length of hospital stay for patients with viral meningitis was 4 days (IQR 3–7), increasing to 9 days (6–12) in those treated with antivirals. Earlier lumbar puncture resulted in more patients having a specific cause identified than did those who had a delayed lumbar puncture. Compared with the age-matched UK population, patients with viral meningitis had a mean loss of 0·2 quality-adjusted life-years (SD 0·04) in that first year.InterpretationViruses are the most commonly identified cause of meningitis in UK adults, and lead to substantial long-term morbidity. Delays in getting a lumbar puncture and unnecessary treatment with antivirals were associated with longer hospital stays. Rapid diagnostics and rationalising treatments might reduce the burden of meningitis on health services.FundingMeningitis Research Foundation and UK National Institute for Health Research.

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AimsTo validate the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) symptom classification in atrial fibrillation (AF) and test whether its discriminative ability could be improved by a simple modification.Methods and resultsWe compared the EHRA classification with three quality of life (QoL) measures: the AF-specific Atrial Fibrillation Effect on QualiTy-of-life (AFEQT) questionnaire; two components of the EQ-5D instrument, a health-related utility which can be used to calculate cost-effectiveness, and the visual analogue scale (VAS) which demonstrates patients' own assessment of health status. We then proposed a simple modification [modified EHRA (mEHRA)] to improve discrimination at the point where major treatment decisions are made. quality of life data and clinician-allocated EHRA class were prospectively collected on 362 patients with AF. A step-wise, negative association was seen between the EHRA class and both the AFEQT and the VAS scores. Health-related utility was only significantly different between Classes 2 and 3 (P < 0.001). We developed and validated the mEHRA score separating Class 2 (symptomatic AF not limiting daily activities), based on whether the patients were ‘troubled by their AF’ (Class 2b) or not (Class 2a). This produced two distinct groups with lower AFEQT and VAS scores and, importantly, both clinically and statistically significant lower health utility (Δutility 0.9, P = 0.01) in Class 2b than Class 2a.ConclusionBased on patients' own assessment of their health status and the disease-specific AFEQT, the EHRA score can be considered a useful semi-quantitative classification. The mEHRA score has a clearer separation in health utility to assess the cost efficacy of interventions such as ablation, where Class 2b symptoms appear to be the appropriate treatment threshold.

SummaryBackgroundHepatitis D virus (also known as hepatitis delta virus) can establish a persistent infection in people with chronic hepatitis B, leading to accelerated progression of liver disease. In sub-Saharan Africa, where HBsAg prevalence is higher than 8%, hepatitis D virus might represent an important additive cause of chronic liver disease. We aimed to establish the prevalence of hepatitis D virus among HBsAg-positive populations in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsWe systematically reviewed studies of hepatitis D virus prevalence among HBsAg-positive populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for papers published between Jan 1, 1995, and Aug 30, 2016, in which patient selection criteria and geographical setting were described. Search strings included sub-Saharan Africa, the countries therein, and permutations of hepatitis D virus. Cohort data were also added from HIV-positive populations in Malawi and Ghana. Populations undergoing assessment in liver disease clinics and those sampled from other populations (defined as general populations) were analysed. We did a meta-analysis with a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model to calculate a pooled estimate of hepatitis D virus seroprevalence.FindingsOf 374 studies identified by our search, 30 were included in our study, only eight of which included detection of hepatitis D virus RNA among anti-hepatitis D virus seropositive participants. In west Africa, the pooled seroprevalence of hepatitis D virus was 7·33% (95% CI 3·55–12·20) in general populations and 9·57% (2·31–20·43) in liver-disease populations. In central Africa, seroprevalence was 25·64% (12·09–42·00) in general populations and 37·77% (12·13–67·54) in liver-disease populations. In east and southern Africa, seroprevalence was 0·05% (0·00–1·78) in general populations. The odds ratio for anti-hepatitis D virus detection among HBsAg-positive patients with liver fibrosis or hepatocellular carcinoma was 5·24 (95% CI 2·74–10·01; p<0·0001) relative to asymptomatic controls.InterpretationFindings suggest localised clusters of hepatitis D virus endemicity across sub-Saharan Africa. Epidemiological data are needed from southern and east Africa, and from patients with established liver disease. Further studies should aim to define the reliability of hepatitis D virus testing methods, identify risk factors for transmission, and characterise the natural history of the infection in the region.FundingWellcome Trust, Royal Society.

Children exposed to LEV in utero are not at an increased risk of delayed early cognitive development under the age of 24 months. LEV may therefore be a preferable drug choice, where appropriate, for WWE prior to and of childbearing age.

Clinical prediction models estimate the risk of existing disease or future outcome for an individual, which is conditional on the values of multiple predictors such as age, sex, and biomarkers. In this article, Bonnett and colleagues provide a guide to presenting clinical prediction models so that they can be implemented in practice, if appropriate. They describe how to create four presentation formats and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each format. A key message is the need for stakeholder engagement to determine the best presentation option in relation to the clinical context of use and the intended users

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has developed rapidly and the ability to stratify the most vulnerable patients is vital. However, routinely used severity scoring systems are often low on diagnosis, even in non-survivors. Therefore, clinical prediction models for mortality are urgently required. Methods: We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model to predict inpatient mortality in COVID-19 positive patients using data collected retrospectively from Tongji Hospital, Wuhan (299 patients). External validation was conducted using a retrospective cohort from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan (145 patients). Nine variables commonly measured in these acute settings were considered for model development, including age, biomarkers and comorbidities. Backwards stepwise selection and bootstrap resampling were used for model development and internal validation. We assessed discrimination via the C statistic, and calibration using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slopes and plots. Findings: The final model included age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO2 as independent predictors of mortality. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0.89) and external (c=0.98) validation. Internal calibration was excellent (calibration slope=1). External validation showed some over-prediction of risk in low-risk individuals and under-prediction of risk in high-risk individuals prior to recalibration. Recalibration of the intercept and slope led to excellent performance of the model in independent data. Interpretation: COVID-19 is a new disease and behaves differently from common critical illnesses. This study provides a new prediction model to identify patients with lethal COVID-19. Its practical reliance on commonly available parameters should improve usage of limited healthcare resources and patient survival rate.