Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is promoted as the solution for sustainable use. An ecosystem-wide assessment methodology is therefore required. In this paper, we present an approach to assess the risk to ecosystem components from human activities common to marine and coastal ecosystems. We build on: (i) a linkage framework that describes how human activities can impact the ecosystem through pressures, and (ii) a qualitative expert judgement assessment of impact chains describing the exposure and sensitivity of ecological components to those activities. Using case study examples applied at European regional sea scale, we evaluate the risk of an adverse ecological impact from current human activities to a suite of ecological components and, once impacted, the time required for recovery to pre-impact conditions should those activities subside. Grouping impact chains by sectors, pressure type, or ecological components enabled impact risks and recovery times to be identified, supporting resource managers in their efforts to prioritize threats for management, identify most at-risk components, and generate time frames for ecosystem recovery.
The increase of water temperature, due to thermal discharges from two nuclear power stations, was one of the most significant environmental changes since 1982 in the Daya Bay, located in the north of the South China Sea. This study investigates the long-term (1982-2012) environmental changes in Daya Bay in response to the increase of water temperature, via comprehensively interpreting and analyzing both satellite and in situ observations along with previous data. The results show that: 1) salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nutrients had been enhanced after the thermal discharges started in 1994; 2) the concentration of Chl-a increased while the net-phytoplankton abundance decreased; 3) diversity of the phytoplankton community had decreased; 4) fishery production had declined; and 5) frequency of Harmful Algal Bloom occurrence had increased. Satellite images show clearly that a thermal plume from the power stations extended toward the interior of Daya Bay, and that surface temperature of the seawater increased as one approached the power stations. The analysis suggests that the thermal water discharged from the two power stations was a driver of the ecosystem's change in Daya Bay. Several factors, including nutrients, salinity, DO, and COD, varied according to the increase of water temperature. These factors affected the water quality, Chl-a, and phytoplankton in the short term and impaired aquatic organisms and the whole ecosystem in the long term.
Since the early 1990s the persistent reports about the irreversibly degrading Black Sea have started to disappear. A large set of data, reflecting the temporal and spatial variability of microalgae and hydrochemical parameters in Western Black Sea waters (WBS), collected in 2001-2002 (EU 5th FP project "daNubs"), allows us to compare the present-day ecosystem functioning to previous ones and to certainly conclude on positive signs of relaxation. The years 2001 and 2002 were without ample, negative biological and hydrochemical events in the WBS. Nutrient general trend was a decreasing one since the late 1980s, and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were frequently below the method detection limits during summer autumn periods of 2001-2002. The shelf waters were properly oxygenated. The phytoplankton community was producing biomass in a decreasing tendency, especially obviously since 1995. Simultaneously, there was an increase in Si:P and Si:N molar ratios and concurrent increase in the diversity of mass algal species (mainly diatoms) but only a few of them generated exceptional blooms. Reduction of the ratios between phytoplankton and zooplankton biomasses became evident. The observed ecological status in 2001-2002 confirms that the Black Sea is no longer a reference point for progressive water quality deterioration.
By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem interactions and mechanisms and offering potential for finding ways to reverse regime shifts. We advocate a management approach aiming at restoring ecosystem hierarchy that might mitigate the costly consequences of regime shifts.
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