Variability in consumer practices and choices is typically not addressed in comparisons of environmental impacts of traditional shopping and e-commerce. Here, we developed a stochastic model to quantify the variability in the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints of product distribution and purchase of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) via three prevalent retail channels in the United Kingdom (U.K.). We found that shopping via bricks and clicks (click and fulfillment via physical store delivery) most likely decreases the GHG footprints when substituting traditional shopping, while FMCGs purchased through pure players with parcel delivery often have higher GHG footprints compared to those purchased via traditional retail. The number of items purchased and the last-mile travel distance are the dominant contributors to the variability in the GHG footprints of all three retail channels. We further showed that substituting delivery vans with electric cargo bikes can lead to a GHG emission reduction of 26% via parcel delivery. Finally, we showed the differences in the "last mile" GHG footprint of traditional shopping in the U.K. compared to three other countries (China, Netherlands, and the United States), which are primarily caused by the different shares of modes of transport (walking and by car, bus, and bike).
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions models generally project a downward trend in CO 2 emissions from land use change, assuming significant crop yield improvements. For some crops, however, significant yield gaps persist whilst demand continues to rise. Here we examine the land use change and GHG implications of meeting growing demand for maize. Integrating economic and biophysical models at an unprecedented spatial resolution, we show that CO 2 emissions from land conversion may rise sharply if future yield growth follows historical trends. Our results show that ~4.0 Gt of additional CO 2 would be emitted from ~23 Mha agricultural expansion from 2015 to 2026, under historical yield improvement trends. If yield gaps are closed expeditiously, however, GHG emissions can be reduced to ~1.1 Gt CO 2 during the period. Our results highlight the urgent need to close global yield gaps to minimize agricultural expansion and for continued efforts to constrain agricultural expansion in carbon-rich lands and forests.
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