Background
COVID-19 has grown rapidly across the world. Tunisia reacted early to COVID-19 resulting in low number of infections. In this paper we model the effects of different interventions on the evolution of cases and compare this to the Tunisian experience.
Methods
We use a stochastic transmission model to quantify the reduction in number of cases of COVID-19 of interventions of contact tracing, compliance with isolation and a general lockdown.
Results
Increasing contact tracing from 20% to 80% after the first 100 cases reduces the cumulative number of infections (CNI) by 52% in one month. Similarly, increased compliance to isolation from 20% to 80% after the first 100 cases reduces the CNI by 45%. These reductions are smaller if the interventions are implemented after 1000 cases. A general lockdown reduces the CNI by 97% after the first 100 cases. Tunisia implemented its general lockdown after 75 cases were confirmed, reduced the cumulative number of infected cases by 86% among the general population.
Conclusions
This study shows that early application of critical interventions contributes to significantly reducing infections and the evolution of COVID-19 in a country. Tunisia’s early success with control of COVID-19 is explained by its quick response.
The main purpose of this paper is to study the orthotropic plastic behaviour of the cold-rolled interstitial free steel HC260Y when it is submitted to various loading directions under monotonic tests. The experimental database included tensile tests carried out on specimens (in the as-received condition and after undergoing an annealing heat treatment) cut in different orientations according to the rolling direction. A model was proposed, depending on a plasticity criterion, a hardening law and an evolution law, which takes into account the anisotropy of the material. To validate the proposed identification strategy, a comparison with the experimental results of the planar tension tests, carried out on specimens cut parallel to the rolling direction, was considered. The obtained results allowed the prediction of the behaviour of this material when it is subjected to other solicitations whether simple or compound.
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