Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. While low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living
In this paper, we document the economic implications of changing demographic conditions in Africa. To construct support ratios, we use National Transfer Accounts (NTA) estimates of per capita labor income and consumption by age, as well as population estimates and projections provided by the UN Population Division for 16 African countries. First, we find that, on average, support ratios are rising in Africa. But compared with the support ratios in Asia and Latin America, the magnitude of those in Africa is lower because the percentage of effective workers in the total population is also low. Second, we find that human capital spending is high in countries with low fertility rates, which suggests a quantity–quality trade-off. NTA estimates also show that to capitalize on the demographic dividend, countries have to create economic opportunities for young adults. In addition, investment in human and physical capital is important to generate the second demographic dividend.
Aim: To estimate the first demographic dividend in Senegal and discuss the conditions to enjoy it. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Place and Duration of Study: Dakar. Methodology: We implemented the national transfers account (NTA) system that allow estimating what each individual gets at each age of the lifecycle. The calculations are based on two mains surveys conducted in Senegal several years ago, namely the "Enquête de Suivi de la Pauvreté au Senegal" (ESPS-2005) and the "Enquête 1-2-3". Results: We came with estimations of individual needs for consumption and labor income, first demographic dividend as a contribution in income growth and our calculations indicate that Senegal is in a period of enjoying its first demographic dividend. Conclusion: In order to take advantage from the population structural change due to demographic transition, Government has to implement structural reform aiming at improving worker's productivity and creating more job opportunities.
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