No abstract

We combined two existing datasets of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2011, 9899; Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012, 182) into a pan-tropical AGB map at 1-km resolution using an independent reference dataset of field observations and locally calibrated high-resolution biomass maps, harmonized and upscaled to 14 477 1-km AGB estimates. Our data fusion approach uses bias removal and weighted linear averaging that incorporates and spatializes the biomass patterns indicated by the reference data. The method was applied independently in areas (strata) with homogeneous error patterns of the input (Saatchi and Baccini) maps, which were estimated from the reference data and additional covariates. Based on the fused map, we estimated AGB stock for the tropics (23.4 N-23.4 S) of 375 Pg dry mass, 9-18% lower than the Saatchi and Baccini estimates. The fused map also showed differing spatial patterns of AGB over large areas, with higher AGB density in the dense forest areas in the Congo basin, Eastern Amazon and South-East Asia, and lower values in Central America and in most dry vegetation areas of Africa than either of the input maps. The validation exercise, based on 2118 estimates from the reference dataset not used in the fusion process, showed that the fused map had a RMSE 15-21% lower than that of the input maps and, most importantly, nearly unbiased estimates (mean bias 5 Mg dry mass ha(-1) vs. 21 and 28 Mg ha(-1) for the input maps). The fusion method can be applied at any scale including the policy-relevant national level, where it can provide improved biomass estimates by integrating existing regional biomass maps as input maps and additional, country-specific reference datasets.

In mountainous regions, climate warming is expected to shift species' ranges to higher altitudes. Evidence for such shifts is still mostly from revisitations of historical sites. We present recent (2001 to 2008) changes in vascular plant species richness observed in a standardized monitoring network across Europe's major mountain ranges. Species have moved upslope on average. However, these shifts had opposite effects on the summit floras' species richness in boreal-temperate mountain regions (+3.9 species on average) and Mediterranean mountain regions (-1.4 species), probably because recent climatic trends have decreased the availability of water in the European south. Because Mediterranean mountains are particularly rich in endemic species, a continuation of these trends might shrink the European mountain flora, despite an average increase in summit species richness across the region.

The possible effects of climate change on the advance of the tree line are considered. As temperature, elevated CO(2) and nitrogen deposition co-vary, it is impossible to disentangle their impacts without performing experiments. However, it does seem very unlikely that photosynthesis per se and, by implication, factors that directly influence photosynthesis, such as elevated CO(2), will be as important as those factors which influence the capacity of the tree to use the products of photosynthesis, such as temperature. Moreover, temperature limits growth more severely than it limits photosynthesis over the temperature range 5-20 degrees C. If it is assumed that growth and reproduction are controlled by temperature, a rapid advance of the tree line would be predicted. Indeed, some authors have provided photographic evidence and remotely sensed data that suggest this is, in fact, occurring. In regions inhabited by grazing animals, the advance of the tree line will be curtailed, although growth of trees below the tree line will of course increase substantially.

No abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha−1 per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

Summary 1The aim of this study was to document patterns in tree reproductive phenology in a rain forest of central Borneo and examine relationships between phenology and climatic patterns. 2 A 10-year data set (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) of monthly observations of flowering and fruit production of 171 trees (including 39 members of the Dipterocarpaceae) at Barito Ulu, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, showed that most trees (73%) underwent reproductive activity on a supra-annual timescale. 3 There were three general flowering (GF) events, in 1991, 1994 and 1997, which were preceded by major drought periods (30-day sliding total rainfall of less than 100 mm for more than 10 days) in which at least 40% of dipterocarps and at least 18% of all other trees underwent synchronized reproductive activity; there was also a minor event in 1990. Around 1.3% of trees flowered and 3.8% produced fruit in months outside of these four events. 4 At the community level, the strongest negative correlation was found between the percentage of flowering individuals and total rainfall in the preceding 150 days. 5 Within three genera of dipterocarps examined in more detail ( Dipterocarpus , Shorea and Vatica ) there were clear and consistent patterns of sequential flowering with certain species flowering early in the GF events and others towards the end of these events. 6 Our results confirm the importance of large-scale climatic fluctuations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) on plant reproductive phenology in South-east Asian tropical forests and indicate that drought may be a more important cue than low night-time temperatures.