Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. MethodsGBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each agesex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobac...

Background Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9–11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3–13·1) decre...

Desire for weight change and level of dietary consciousness may severely bias reported food intake in dietary surveys. We evaluated to what degree under- and overreporting of energy intake (EI) was related to lifestyle, sociodemographic variables, and attitudes about body weight and diet in a nationwide dietary survey. Data were gathered by a self-administered quantitative food-frequency questionnaire distributed to a representative sample of men and women aged 16-79 y in Norway, of whom 3144 subjects (63%) responded. Reported EI was related to estimated basal metabolic rate (BMR) based on self-reported body weight, age, and sex. An EI:BMR < 1.35 was considered to represent underreporting and an EI:BMR > or = 2.4 as overreporting of EI. Fewer men than women underreported EI (38% compared with 45%). The fraction of overreporters did not differ significantly between sexes (7% of the men compared with 5% of the women). A large proportion of underreporters was obese (9%) and wanted to reduce their weight (41%). Few overreporters were obese and 12% wanted to increase their weight. Underreporters consumed fewer foods rich in fat and sugar than did the other subjects. Multiple regression analysis showed that desire for weight change and physical activity score were significantly correlated with both EI and EI:BMR when adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables. Our findings indicated that attitudes about one's own body weight influenced reported EI. These attitudes are important in the interpretation of dietary data because many of the subjects (> 30%) wanted to change their body weight.

Objective: To evaluate the differences in the consumption of fruit and vegetables between groups with different socio-economic status (SES) in the adult population of European countries. Design: A systematic review of published and unpublished surveys of food habits conducted between 1985 and 1999 in 15 European countries. Educational level and occupational status were used as indicators of SES. A pooled estimate of the mean difference between the highest and the lowest level of education and occupation was calculated separately for men and women, using DerSimonian and Laird's random effects model. Setting: The inclusion criteria of studies were: use of a validated method for assessing intake at the individual level; selection of a nationwide sample or a representative sample of a region; and providing the mean and standard deviation of overall fruit and vegetable consumption for each level of education or occupation, and separately for men and women. Subjects: Participants in the individual surveys had to be adults (18 ± 85 y). Results: Eleven studies from seven countries met the criteria for being included in the meta-analysis. A higher SES was associated with a greater consumption of both fruit and vegetables. The pooled estimate of the difference in the intake of fruit was 24.3 gapersonaday (95% con®dence interval (CI) 14.0 ± 34.7) between men in the highest level of education and those in the lowest level of education. Similarly, this difference was 33.6 gapersonaday for women (95% CI 22.5 ± 44.8). The differences regarding vegetables were 17.0 gapersonaday (95% CI 8.6 ± 25.5) for men and 13.4 gapersonaday (95% CI 7.1 ± 19.7) for women. The results were in the same direction when occupation instead of education was used as an indicator of SES. Conclusions: Although we cannot exclude over-reporting of intake by those with highest SES, it is unlikely that this potential bias could fully explain the differences we have found. Our results suggest that an unhealthier nutrition pattern may exist among adults belonging to lower socio-economic levels in Europe. Sponsorship: The present study was supported by the European Union's FAIR programme .