ObjectiveTo examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation.DesignCommunity based cohort study.SettingLongitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study.ParticipantsIndividuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age.Main outcome measureLifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death.ResultsAt index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years.ConclusionsRegardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least one elevated risk factor.

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Consumption of alcohol was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter in men. In women, moderate consumption of alcohol did not seem to be associated with risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter.

Male sex, increasing age, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and heart valve disease are associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter in patients with hyperthyroidism.

A hospital diagnosis of AF is an important risk factor for peripheral arterial thromboembolic complications.

Objective It is recognized that higher height and weight are associated with higher risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter (AF) but it is unclear whether risk of AF is related to body fat, body fat location, or lean body mass. Design and Methods We studied the Danish population-based prospective cohort Diet, Cancer and Health conducted among 55 273 men and women 50-64 years of age at recruitment. We investigated the associations between bioelectrical impedance derived measures of body composition and combinations of anthropometric measures of body fat distribution and risk of an incident record of AF in the Danish Registry of Patients. Results During follow-up (median 13.5 years) AF developed in 1 669 men and 912 women. Higher body fat at any measured location was associated with higher risk of AF. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 1 sex-specific standard deviation (SD) increment in body fat mass was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-1.33). Higher lean body mass was also associated with a higher risk of AF. The adjusted HR for 1 sex-specific SD increment was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.35-1.45). Conclusion Higher body fat and higher lean body mass were both associated with higher risk of AF.

ObjectiveDiagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD.MethodsWe included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20.ResultsHaemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD.ConclusionSound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation.Trial registration number ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results.

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