Mineral resources are fundamental to drive the economic growth in a modern society. Although these resources have extensively been crossed referenced as "finite," their metal production has increased steadily over the decades. The concept of "peak oil" has been under extensive debate, whereas that of "peak minerals" of individual metals lacks in-depth studies. This study aimed to provide a brief account of the ultimate recoverable resources for copper (Cu), gold (Au), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). We utilized grade tonnage curves to illustrate future resource availability against a decline in the metal ore grade. Furthermore, an environmental indicator was calculated based on the total material requirement (TMR) to evaluate the present and future trends. Consequently, a visible decline in the metal grade for Cu, Ni, Au, Pb, and Zn was observed, whereas the future ore grade for Fe was projected to decline gradually. Furthermore, we estimated that as ultimate recoverable reserves peak approaches, metals will be recoverable at lower grades. The TMR increased for all metals, thus, indicating potential vulnerability to the environment. The findings indicate that awareness on the declining metal grades, environmental impacts of metals, and future mineral supplies will increase; however, other factors that govern the dynamics of recoverability and availability of these metals will offset the peak of these resources.
Copper and iron are critical to the economic growth of modern society. Nations depend on these metals for the development of infrastructure, transportation, and other industries. However, concerns regarding future availability of “peak minerals” with a “limit to growth” have been extensively debated. The purpose of this study was to investigate the amount of potential resources and the recycling rate from secondary metal scrap recycling for the sustainable development of mineral resources. The long-term mineral supply and demand balance with respect to recycling for copper and iron were developed for the next 50 years at the regional and global levels. The results indicate that the supply of copper would increase four-fold by 2070 compared to 1991, with primary copper remaining the main contributing source. For iron, the total supply would increase by nine times from 2000 to 2070, with secondary recycling surpassing the primary iron supply by 2033 and becoming the main contributor by 2070. Even though there is no future resource constraint, further promotion of scrap recycling, especially for copper, is necessary to address environmental concerns through reduction in material extraction. Emphasizing the importance of metals in society is essential for stock accountability through resource efficiency and resource conservation.
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