Species distribution modelling has been widely applied in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Many methodological decisions, taken during the modelling process and forecasts, may, however, lead to a large variability in the assessment of future impacts. Using measures of species range change and turnover, the potential impacts of climate change on French stream fish species and assemblages were evaluated. Our main focus was to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of these impacts arising from four sources of uncertainty: initial datasets (Data), statistical methods [species distribution models (SDM)], general circulation models (GCM), and gas emission scenarios (GES). Several modalities of the aforementioned uncertainty sources were combined in an ensemble forecasting framework resulting in 8400 different projections. The variance explained by each source was then extracted from this whole ensemble of projections. Overall, SDM contributed to the largest variation in projections, followed by GCM, whose contribution increased over time equalling almost the proportion of variance explained by SDM in 2080. Data and GES had little influence on the variability in projections. Future projections of range change were more consistent for species with a large geographical extent (i.e., distribution along latitudinal or stream gradients) or with restricted environmental requirements (i.e., small thermal or elevation ranges). Variability in projections of turnover was spatially structured at the scale of France, indicating that certain particular geographical areas should be considered with care when projecting the potential impacts of climate change. The results of this study, therefore, emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the use of predictions ensembles resulting from the application of several statistical methods and climate models. Moreover, forecasted impacts of climate change should always be provided with an assessment of their uncertainty, so that management and conservation decisions can be taken in the full knowledge of their reliability.

Summary 1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).

International audienceStream fish are expected to be significantly influenced by climate change, as they are ectothermic animals whose dispersal is limited within hydrographic networks. Nonetheless, they are also controlled by other physical factors that may prevent them moving to new thermally suitable sites. Using presence–absence records in 655 sites widespread throughout nine French river units, we predicted the potential future distribution of 30 common stream fish species facing temperature warming and change in precipitation regime. We also assessed the potential impacts on fish assemblages' structure and diversity. Only cold-water species, whose diversity is very low in French streams, were predicted to experience a strong reduction in the number of suitable sites. In contrast, most cool-water and warm-water fish species were projected to colonize many newly suitable sites. Considering that cold headwater streams are the most numerous on the Earth's surface, our results suggested that headwater species would undergo a deleterious effect of climate change, whereas downstream species would expand their range by migrating to sites located in intermediate streams or upstream. As a result, local species richness was forecasted to increase greatly and high turnover rates indicated future fundamental changes in assemblages' structure. Changes in assemblage composition were also positively related to the intensity of warming. Overall, these results (1) stressed the importance of accounting for both climatic and topographic factors when assessing the future distribution of riverine fish species and (2) may be viewed as a first estimation of climate change impacts on European freshwater fish assemblages

The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of species geographical and environmental ranges on the predictive performances of species distribution models (SDMs). We explored the usefulness of ensemble modelling approaches and tested whether species attributes influenced the outcomes of such approaches. Eight SDMs were used to model the current distribution of 35 fish species at 1110 stream sections in France. We first quantified the consensus among the resulting set of predictions for each fish species. Next, we created an average model by taking the average of the individual model predictions and tested whether the average model improved the predictive performances of single SDMs. Lastly, we described the ranges of fish species along four gradients: latitudinal, thermal, stream gradient (i.e. upstream‐downstream) and elevation. After accounting for the effects of phylogenetic relatedness and species prevalence, these four species attributes were related to the observed variations in both consensus among SDMs and predictive performances by using generalized estimation equations. Our results highlight the usefulness of ensemble approaches for identifying geographical areas of agreement among predictions. Although the geographical extent of species had no effect on the performances of SDMs, we demonstrated that more consensual and accurate predictions were obtained for species with low thermal and elevation ranges, validating the hypothesis that specialist species yield models with higher accuracy than generalist ones. We emphasized that significant improvements in the accuracy of SDMs can be achieved by using an average model. Furthermore, these improvements were higher for species with smaller ranges along the four gradients studied. The geographical extent and ranges of species along environmental gradients provide promising insights into our understanding of uncertainties in species distribution modelling.

A growing interest is devoted to global-scale approaches in ecology and evolution that examine patterns and determinants of species diversity and the threats resulting from global change. These analyses obviously require global datasets of species distribution. Freshwater systems house a disproportionately high fraction of the global fish diversity considering the small proportion of the earth’s surface that they occupy, and are one of the most threatened habitats on Earth. Here we provide complete species lists for 3119 drainage basins covering more than 80% of the Earth surface using 14953 fish species inhabiting permanently or occasionally freshwater systems. The database results from an extensive survey of native and non-native freshwater fish species distribution based on 1436 published papers, books, grey literature and web-based sources. Alone or in combination with further datasets on species biological and ecological characteristics and their evolutionary history, this database represents a highly valuable source of information for further studies on freshwater macroecology, macroevolution, biogeography and conservation.

The assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity has so far been biased toward the taxonomic identification of the species likely either to benefit from climate modifications or to experience overall declines. There have still been few studies intended to correlate the characteristics of species to their sensitivity to climate change, even though it is now recognized that functional trait-based approaches are promising tools for addressing challenges related to global changes. In this study, two functional indices (originality and uniqueness) were first measured for 35 fish species occurring in French streams. They were then combined to projections of range shifts in response to climate change derived from species distribution models. We set out to investigate: (1) the relationship between the degrees of originality and uniqueness of fish species, and their projected response to future climate change; and (2) the consequences of individual responses of species for the functional diversity of fish assemblages. After accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species, we have demonstrated that the two indices used measure two complementary facets of the position of fish species in a functional space. We have also rejected the hypothesis that the most original and/or less redundant species would necessarily experience the greatest declines in habitat suitability as a result of climate change. However, individual species range shifts could lead simultaneously both to a severe decline in the functional diversity of fish assemblages, and to an increase in the functional similarity among assemblages, supporting the hypothesis that disturbance favors communities with combination of common traits and biotic homogenization as well. Our findings therefore emphasize the importance of going beyond the simple taxonomic description of diversity to provide a better assessment of the likely future effects of environmental changes on biodiversity, thus helping to design more effective conservation and management measures.

– The relative influence of temperature versus local physical factors on the spatial distribution of riverine fish species was investigated in a large watershed of south‐western France. Using generalised additive models and hierarchical partitioning, we modelled the ecological responses of 28 fish species to a set of five environmental predictors, and we quantified the independent effect of each predictor. The spatial distribution of fish species was primarily determined by both mean temperature and position along the upstream–downstream gradient. However, responses to these environmental factors varied according to the species considered. Fish species with strong thermal requirements (e.g., common carp, black bullhead, Atlantic salmon) were mainly sensitive to temperature whereas longitudinal gradient was of primary importance for downstream species (e.g., common bream, largemouth bass, pike perch). Both the statistical methods used gave concordant results and appeared complementary. This dual‐approach, quantifying the relative contribution of each environmental factor, appears particularly useful to understand the spatial distribution of stream fish species. Separating the effects of temperature versus habitat factors is crucial to accurately predict species distribution modifications in the current context of global change.

Aim  To investigate the potential impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages in terms of species and biological trait diversity, composition and similarity.Location  One‐thousand one‐hundred and ten stream sections in France.Methods  We predicted the future potential distribution of 35 common stream fish species facing changes in temperature and precipitation regime. Seven different species distribution models were applied and a consensus forecast was produced to limit uncertainty between single‐models. The potential impacts of climate change on fish assemblages were assessed using both species and biological trait approaches. We then addressed the spatial distribution of potential impacts along the upstream–downstream gradient.Results  Overall, climate change was predicted to result in an increase in species and trait diversity. Species and trait composition of the fish assemblages were also projected to be highly modified. Changes in assemblages’ diversity and composition differed strongly along the upstream–downstream gradient, with upstream and midstream assemblages more modified than downstream assemblages. We also predicted a global increase in species and trait similarity between pairwise assemblages indicating a future species and trait homogenization of fish assemblages. Nevertheless, we found that upstream assemblages would differentiate, whereas midstream and downstream assemblages would homogenize. Our results suggested that colonization could be the main driver of the predicted homogenization, while local extinctions could result in assemblage differentiation.Main conclusions  This study demonstrated that climate change could lead to contrasted impacts on fish assemblage structure and diversity depending on the position along the upstream–downstream gradient. These results could have important implications in terms of ecosystem monitoring as they could be useful in establishing areas that would need conservation prioritization.