a b s t r a c tAccurate short-term wind speed forecasting is important for the planning of a renewable energy power generation and utilization, especially in grid systems. In meteorology it is usual to improve the forecasts by means of some post-processing methods using local measurements and weather prediction model outputs. Neural networks, trained with local real data observations can improve short-term wind speed forecasts with respect to meso-scale numerical meteorological model outcomes of the same data types in the majority of cases. Large-scale forecast models are based on the numerical integration of differential equation systems, which can describe atmospheric circulation processes on account of global meteorological observations. Several layer 3D complex models, which involve a large number of matrix variables, cannot exactly describe conditions near the ground, highly influenced by a landscape relief, coast, structure and other factors. Polynomial neural networks can form and solve general differential equations, which allow to model real complex systems by means of substitution derivative term sum series. The proposed adaptive method forms a correction function according to real observations and consequently applies forecasts to revise a desired prognosis in a selected locality.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

The unstable production of renewable energy sources, which is difficult to model using conventional computational techniques, may be predicted to advantage by means of biologically inspired soft-computing methods. The photovoltaic output power is primarily dependent on the solar direct or global radiation, which short-term numerical forecasts are possible to apply for daily power predictions. The study compares two methods, which can successfully model dynamic fluctuant variances of the solar irradiance and corresponding output power time-series. Differential polynomial network is a new neural network class, which defines and substitutes for the general partial differential equation to model an unknown system function. Its total output is composed from selected neurons, i.e. relative polynomial substitution terms, formed in all network layers of a multi-layer structure. The proposed derivative polynomial regression using relative dimensionless fraction units, formed according to the Similarity analysis, can describe and generalize data relations on a wider range of values than defined by the training interval when using standard soft-computing composing techniques that apply only absolute data. 1-variable time-series observations are possible to model by time derivatives of a converted ordinary differential equation, solved analogously with partial derivative substitution terms of several time-point variables.

No abstract

No abstract