Massive investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation are projected during coming decades. Many of these investments will seek to modify how land is managed. The return on both types of investments can be increased through an understanding of land potential: the potential of the land to support primary production and ecosystem services, and its resilience. A Land‐Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) is being developed and implemented to provide individual users with point‐based estimates of land potential based on the integration of simple, geo‐tagged user inputs with cloud‐based information and knowledge. This system will rely on mobile phones for knowledge and information exchange, and use cloud computing to integrate, interpret, and access relevant knowledge and information, including local knowledge about land with similar potential. The system will initially provide management options based on long‐term land potential, which depends on climate, topography, and relatively static soil properties, such as soil texture, depth, and mineralogy. Future modules will provide more specific management information based on the status of relatively dynamic soil properties such as organic matter and nutrient content, and of weather. The paper includes a discussion of how this system can be used to help distinguish between meteorological and edaphic drought.

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In arid and semi-arid regions of Eastern and Southern Africa, drought can be devastating to pastoralists who depend on healthy vegetation for their herds. The Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP) addresses this challenge through its insurance program that relies on a vegetation index product derived from eMODIS NDVI (enhanced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Insurance payouts are triggered when index values fall below a certain threshold for a Unit Area of Insurance (UAI). The objective of this study is to produce an updated, cloud-based NDVI product, potentially allowing for earlier payouts that may help herders to prevent, minimize, or offset drought-induced losses. The new product, named reNDVI (rapid enhanced NDVI), provides an updated cloud filtering algorithm and brings the entire processing chain to the cloud. Access to the scripts used for the processing described and resulting data is openly available. To test the performance of the new product, we provide a robust evaluation of reNDVI and eMODIS NDVI and their derived payout indices against historical drought, payouts provided, and mortality data. The implications of potential payout differences are also discussed. The products show good comparability; the monthly average NDVI per UAI has correlation values over 0.95 and MAPD under 5% for most UAIs. However, there are moderate differences when assessing year-to-year payout amounts triggered. Because the payouts are currently calculated based on the 20th and first percentile of index values from 2003–2016, payouts are very sensitive to even small changes in NDVI. Where livestock mortality was available, payouts for reNDVI and eMODIS had similar correlations (r = 0.453 and r = 0.478, respectively) with mortality rates. Therefore, with the potential reduced latency and updated cloud filtering, the reNDVI product could be a suitable replacement for eMODIS in the Kenya Livestock Insurance Program. The updated reNDVI product shows promise as a vegetation index that could address a pressing drought insurance challenge.

Increasing climate variability and change coupled with steady population growth is threatening water resources and livelihoods of communities living in the Wami-Ruvu and Rufiji basins in Tanzania. These basins are host to three large urban centers, namely Dar es Salaam, Dodoma and Morogoro, with a combined total of more than 7 million people. Increased demand for ecosystem services from the available surface water resources and a decreasing supply of clean and safe water are exacerbating the vulnerability of communities in these basins. Several studies have analyzed climate projects in the two basins but little attention has been paid to identify locations that have vulnerable communities in a spatially-explicit form. To address this gap, we worked with stakeholders from national and local government agencies, basin water boards and the Water Resources Integration Development Initiative (WARIDI) project funded by USAID to map the vulnerability of communities to climate variability and change in the two basins. A generalized methodology for mapping social vulnerability to climate change was used to integrate biophysical and socioeconomic indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and produced climate vulnerability index maps. Our analysis identified vulnerability “hotspots” where communities are at a greater risk from climate stressors. The results from this study were used to identify priority sites and adaptation measures for the implementation of resilience building interventions and to train local government agencies and communities on climate change adaptation measures in the two basins.

Abstract. Monitoring staple crop production can support agricultural research, business such as crop insurance, and government policy. Obtaining accurate estimates through field work is very expensive, and estimating it through remote sensing is promising. We estimated county-level maize yield for the 37 maize producing countries in Kenya from 2010 to 2017 using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) were used to fit models with observed county level maize yield as a function of vegetation indices. The following five MODIS vegetation indices were used: green normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference moisture index, gross primary production, and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation. The models were evaluated with 5-fold leave one year out cross-validation. For SVR, R2 was 0.70, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 0.50 MT/ha and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was 27.6%. On the other hand for RF these were 0.69, 0.51 MT/ha and 29.3% respectively. These results are promising and should be tested in specific applications to understand if they are good enough for use.

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Kenya’s vulnerability to climate variability and change has been compounded by dependence on rain-fed agriculture with constrained capacity to adapt, a rapidly growing population, low-mechanized and low-input smallholder agricultural systems, and compromised soil fertility. The Ukraine war, COVID-19 and the desert locust invasion have only amplified the prevailing sensitivity to shocks in the agriculture sector, creating an emphasis on the need to strengthen local agricultural production to reduce reliance on imports. This paper seeks to assess the opportunities for improving agriculture adaptation and resilience based on future expected changes in climate, length of the growing period and agro-ecologies. The study uses 2020 as the baseline year and explores changes in agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in “near future” 2040 through two representative concentration pathways, 4.5 and 8.5, representing a medium carbon emissions and a dire emissions future, respectively. Google Earth Engine and R Statistics are used in data-processing. Down-scaled climate projections from CIMP5 are used for future analyses combined with static soil suitability and drainage data. Fuzzy logic is used to normalize inputs and compute the agro-ecological zones (AEZ). Interesting results emerge from the study that validate the hypothesis that the seasons and production potential are shifting. Lowland drylands will experience an increasingly long growing period, creating the potential for diversifying production systems from rangelands to agro-pastoral systems, with the capacity to grow more drought-resistant crops and the potential to take advantage of increased runoff for water harvesting. Midland highland areas, which form part of the food basket areas, have already started experiencing a reduction in the length of the growing period and agricultural potential. In these areas, resilience mechanisms will need to consider the expected future reduction in rain-fed agricultural potential, gendered preferences, convergence of technology and indigenous coping mechanisms, and drought-resilience-focused diversification.

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