Oesophagectomy was effectively centralised in the Netherlands, improving mortality and survival. Gastrectomies were mainly performed in low volumes, and outcomes after gastrectomy improved to a lesser extent, indicating an urgent need for improvement in quality of surgery and perioperative care for gastric cancer in the Netherlands.

Rates of PaC resection remain low in Europe and USA with great international variations. Further studies are warranted to explore reasons for these variations.

BackgroundThe prognosis of pancreatic cancer (PaC) strongly varies across different stages and age groups, which has unfortunately not been well recorded in the literature. This international population-based study aimed to provide tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage- and age-specific survival estimates and trends in resected and overall (resected and unresected) PaC in the early twenty-first century.MethodsUsing data from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 Program and the national cancer registries of the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, and Slovenia, short-term and long-term overall survival results stratified by TNM stage and age in resected and overall primary PaC, irrespective of being microscopically confirmed or not, in 2003–2014 were computed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The temporal survival trends over three predefined periods (2003–2005, 2006–2008, and 2009–2011) were further examined using the log-rank test.ResultsIn total, data for 125,183 patients were analyzed. Overall, age-stratified 3-year survival was 20–34% (< 60 years), 14–25% (60–69 years), and 9–13% (≥ 70 years) in stages I–II PaC; and 2–5% (< 60 years), 1–2% (60–69 years), and < 1–1% (≥ 70 years) in stages III–IV cancer. Patients who underwent operation had higher 3-year survival in each stage and age group (stages I–II: 23–39% (< 60 years), 16–31% (60–69 years), and 17–30% (≥ 70 years); stages III–IV: 5–19% (< 70 years) and 2–14% (≥ 70 years)). Perioperative survival also decreased with advancing stage and older age (stages I–II: 98–100% (< 60 years), 97–99% (60–69 years), and 94–99% (≥ 70 years); stages III–IV: 94–99% (< 70 years) and 81–96% (≥ 70 years)). Between 2003 and 2005 and 2009–2011, for overall PaC, both short-term and long-term survival improvements were observed in all countries except Belgium; for resected disease, short-term improvements were present only in the USA and Slovenia, but long-term improvements were observed in all countries except Slovenia, with stage-specific variations.ConclusionsOur large international study provides TNM stage- and age-specific population-based survival in overall and resected PaC that will facilitate clinical counseling. While the survival expectations for patients with resected PaC are substantially higher than the widely available and known dismal survival predictions for overall patients, conclusions on the benefits of resection cannot be made from this observational study. Patients with advanced-stage disease and/or older age should undergo careful risk assessment before treatment. Limited but inspiring improvement in survival is observed.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1120-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundPancreatic cancer (PaC) remains extremely lethal worldwide even after resection. PaC resection rates are low, making prognostic studies in resected PaC difficult. This large international population-based study aimed at exploring factors associated with survival in patients with resected TNM stage I–II PaC receiving chemotherapy and at developing and internationally validating a survival-predicting model.MethodsData of stage I–II PaC patients resected and receiving chemotherapy in 2003–2014 were obtained from the national cancer registries of Belgium, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Norway, and the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 Program. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to investigate the associations of patient and tumor characteristics with overall survival, and analysis was performed in each country respectively without pooling. Prognostic factors remaining after backward selection in SEER-18 were used to build a nomogram, which was subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation using the European datasets.ResultsA total of 11,837 resected PaC patients were analyzed, with median survival time of 18–23 months and 3-year survival rates of 21–31%. In the main analysis, patient age, tumor T stage, N stage, and differentiation were associated with survival across most countries, with country-specific association patterns and strengths. However, tumor location was mostly not significantly associated with survival. Resection margin, hospital type, tumor size, positive and harvested lymph node number, lymph node ratio, and comorbidity number were associated with survival in certain countries where the information was available. A median survival time- and 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year survival probability-predictive nomogram incorporating the backward-selected variables in the main analysis was established. It fits each European national cohort similarly well. Calibration curves showed very good agreement between nomogram-prediction and actual observation. The concordance index of the nomogram (0.60) was significantly higher than that of the T and N stage-based model (0.56) for predicting survival.ConclusionsIn these large international population-based cohorts, patients with resected PaC receiving chemotherapy have distinct characteristics independently associated with survival, with country-specific patterns and strengths. A robust benchmark population-based survival-predicting model is established and internationally validated. Like previous models predicting survival in resected PaC, our nomogram performs modestly.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-019-1304-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The role of chemotherapy in the treatment of pancreatic cancer (PaC) has been well-established, while radiation plays ambiguous roles. This international large-scale population-based study aimed to investigate the real-world application of chemotherapy and radiotherapy for resected and unresected PaC in Europe and USA. Population-based data from multiple European national cancer registries and the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-18 database during 2003-2014 were analyzed. Temporal trends and geographical variations in the application rates of chemotherapy and radiotherapy were quantified using age standardization. Associations of treatment with demographic and clinical characteristics were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. A total of 141,533 PaC patients were analyzed. From 2003-2005 to 2012-2014, chemotherapy administration rates increased in most countries and more strongly among resected patients, while radiation rates were generally low with a slight decline or no obvious trend. In 2012-2014, 12.5% (Estonia) to 61.7% (Belgium) of resected and 17.1% (Slovenia) to 56.9% (Belgium) of unresected patients received chemotherapy. Radiation was administered in 2.6% (Netherlands) to 32.6% (USA) of resected and 1.0% (USA) to 6.0% (Belgium) of unresected patients. Strong temporal and geographical variations were observed. Patterns and strengths of associations of treatment administration with various demographic and clinical factors differed substantially between resected and unresected cancers and varied greatly across countries. Conclusively, administration of chemotherapy but not radiotherapy for PaC increased during the last decade in Europe and USA. Treatment rates were low and the uptake strongly varied across countries, highlighting the need for standardization in PaC treatment to improve patient care.

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6503 Background: Examined lymph node (ELN) number is an important quality metric in cancer care. This large international cohort study aimed to investigate the associations of ELN number with accurate staging and long-term survival in pancreatic cancer (PaC) and to robustly determine the minimal and optimal ELN thresholds. Methods: Population-based data on patients with stage I-II PaC resected in 2003-2015 from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 Program and Netherlands National Cancer Registry (NCR) were analyzed. Associations of ELN number with stage migration and survival were evaluated using multivariable-adjusted logistic and Cox regression models, respectively. The series of odds ratios (ORs) for stage migration and hazard ratios (HRs) for survival with more ELNs were fitted using a LOWESS smoother, and structural breakpoints were determined by Chow test. Results: Overall 18,303 patients were analyzed. With increasing ELN number, both cohorts exhibited significant proportional increases from node-negative to node-positive disease (ORSEER-18= 1.05, 95% CI = 1.04-1.05; ORNCR= 1.10, 95% CI = 1.08-1.12) and serial improvements in survival (HRSEER-18= 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99; HRNCR= 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99) per additional ELN after controlling for confounders. Associations for stage migration and survival remained significant in most stratifications by patient, tumor, and treatment factors. Cut-point analyses suggested a minimal threshold ELN number of 12 and an optimal number of 19, which were validated both internally in the derivative US cohort and externally in the Dutch cohort with the ability to well discriminate different probabilities of both survival and stage migration. Conclusions: In stage I-II PaC, more ELNs are associated with more precise nodal staging, which might largely explain the survival association. Our results robustly conclude 12 ELNs as the minimal and suggest 19 ELNs as the optimal cut-points, for evaluating quality of lymph node examination and possibly for stratifying postoperative prognosis. Our findings provide important references for defining population-based quality metrics in PaC care.