Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and a of stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.
Recent natural and anthropogenic events, such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, have identified significant gaps in our ability to predict risks associated with offshore hydrocarbon production as well as our capabilities to respond to deleterious events of varying scope, magnitude, and duration. As offshore hydrocarbon development in the Gulf of Mexico continues to push into new territory, there is a need to develop computational tools that enable the rapid prediction of outcomes associated with unexpected hydrocarbon release events from deepwater and ultra-deepwater systems in the Gulf of Mexico. To date, no comprehensive system-wide tool exists that can simulate the complexities of engineered-natural systems and provide the baseline data that is required to drive the simulations.To address this gap, we are developing the Gulf of Mexico Integrated Assessment Model (GOM IAM), the first coordinated platform that will allow for independent, rapid-response, and science based predictions providing the capabilities to assess risks and potential impacts associated with deep and ultra-deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. This predictive model and its analyses allow for the assessment and quantification of risks and environmental impacts from deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil and gas drilling and production, as well as provide a robust tool and database that can provide crucial information necessary for the response and recovery following future loss of control events. Once the GOM IAM is developed, it can be utilize to: if) identify potential risks; ii) identify technology gaps, iii) improve our understanding of the degree of uncertainty relative to key systems and interactions associated with deep and ultra-deep water offshore hydrocarbon development to promote safer development and operations, and iv) run scenarios to serve as a baseline rapid response tool for any future oil spill events.
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