An age-structured population dynamics model, incorporating interactions between Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), the fishery, and the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population, was applied to the cod stock off eastern Nova Scotia (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Divisions 4Vs and 4W, commonly abbreviated to 4VsW), a stock that has dramatically declined since the late 1980s. Mortality was modeled as having three components: fishing mortality (F), seal predation (Mp), and all other sources of natural mortality (M). Specifically, M was assumed to be distinct for immature cod (ages 14; Mi) and mature cod (age 5 and older; Mm), and respective annual variations were estimated. Parameters estimated also included recruitment (cod abundance at age 1; R), F, and Mp. Based on our estimates of F, Mp, and M, it is unlikely that the collapse of the 4VsW cod stock can be attributed to a sudden increase in M; fishing appears to have been the primary cause for the stock's decline. However, after the moratorium on commercial fishing in 1993, increasing Mp and Mm and low R may have contributed to the failure of the 4VsW cod stock to recover.
The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock on the eastern Scotian Shelf collapsed in 1993. Over a decade later, in spite of a fisheries moratorium on cod fishing, this stock is at an all-time low. In parallel with the collapse of the cod stock, the abundance of large cod prey, including forage fish, shrimp, and snow crab, has greatly increased. The key question, which we explore using trophic mass-balance models, is what processes are preventing cod from recovering on the eastern Scotian Shelf? Cod were split into large and small cod. Modelling results indicate high predation pressure on small cod. In addition, small cod compete with the abundant forage fish for decreasing prey, and are in below-average condition. Large cod incur high, but unidentified, mortality that we suggest is derived from the poor condition of small cod carried through to adulthood. As a consequence of the removal of cod by fishing and an ensusing trophic cascade, eastern Scotian Shelf cod are trapped in a vicious circle: their abundance is being kept low by predation, causing an abundance so low that cod cannot compete for prey with their exceptionally abundant competitors. Furthermore, these competitors may also prey on younger stages of cod.
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