In May 1963, U.S. wheat farmers voted down a government sponsored wheat program. The purpose of this article is to ascertain the relationship between the outcome of the referendum and a selected group of five independent variables. A multiple linear regression technique was used in analyzing the data for 28 wheat producing states. The results generally suggest that part-time farmers and Farm Bureau members voted against the program while small wheat producers, tobacco growers, and supporters of John F. Kennedy voted for its passage.I N MAY 1963, over one million U.S. wheat farmers cast ballots in the 1963 wheat referendum. The program up for approval was basically a two-price plan that incorporated both acreage allotments and land retirement. Of 13 wheat programs put to the referendum test since 1941, this was the first denied the two-thirds majority needed for approval. The 1964 program received the approval of only 48 percent of the participating voters, a decline of 20 percent from the previous referendum.The purpose of this paper is to examine the outcome of the 1963 referendum on a state-by-state basis for an explanation of the resulting voting pattern. The outcome will be measured in terms of the percentage voting "yes" in each of the 28 states where 5,000 or more votes were cast.' Of the total votes cast in the nation, over 97 percent were represented by these 28 states. Less than 20,000 votes were cast in each of nine of these states while, at the upper limit, between 60,000 and 92,000 votes were cast in each of seven states.
AnalysisA multiple linear regression technique was used to evaluate the influence of a selected group of five independent variables. For each independent variable, 28 observations (one per state) were assembled. The dependent variable and all of the independent variables are measured in terms of percentages.The following variables were included in the analysis: Y percentage voting "yes" in the wheat referendum.o The author is indebted to Dale Hathaway for a number of helpful suggestions and criticisms.1 The 28 states in decreasing order of the total number of votes cast are Kansas,
The rural poor made especially great strides in the 1970s; unlike earlier decades. Primarily as a result of federal income transfer programs, rural poverty has lost much of its harsh personal impact. Nonetheless, the residual hard core of the poor still exist, being too costly and too difficult to reach. Copyright 1982 by The Policy Studies Organization.
A Time to Choose came about in a setting of substantial turmoil. In the late 1970s, agriculture felt that it was on a roller coaster. Earlier in the decade, it had experienced the huge sales to the Soviet Union, short crops around the world, very high prices, and very high incomes. Then it came down the hill into a very unstable period that was substantially different from the relative stability of the 1950s and 1960s. Energy problems, which had begun early in the 1970s, had not had much of an effect while prices and incomes were high, but when the boom ended, the high cost of energy hurt farmers badly. The general economy was seriously overheated, and inflation was very high. The budget situation, which in retrospect seems tame compared with today's, looked very threatening at the time. In fact, from 1979 to 1980 the deficit increased 80%, something that was very much on people's minds as they were judging policy options. Finally, unusually rapid structural changes were taking place, with farms becoming larger but fewer.
My assignment is to suggest a policy framework for the pursuit of rural community development objectives. I propose to do this in three steps: First, I will describe some major elements of existing policy. As an outgrowth of my interpretation of the' performance of this policy, I will then explore an alternative approach to formulation of the rural development issue. Finally, I will outline a policy framework consistent with this approach.
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