SummaryBackgroundDuring the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa.MethodsWe assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels—national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2—to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require.FindingsAmid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030.InterpretationIn the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Insufficient growth during childhood is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of death. Between 2000 and 2015, nearly all African countries demonstrated improvements for children under 5 years old for stunting, wasting, and underweight, the core components of child growth failure. Here we show that striking subnational heterogeneity in levels and trends of child growth remains. If current rates of progress are sustained, many areas of Africa will meet the World Health Organization Global Targets 2025 to improve maternal, infant and young child nutrition, but high levels of growth failure will persist across the Sahel. At these rates, much, if not all of the continent will fail to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target-to end malnutrition by 2030. Geospatial estimates of child growth failure provide a baseline for measuring progress as well as a precision public health platform to target interventions to those populations with the greatest need, in order to reduce health disparities and accelerate progress.

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Complex interventions present unique challenges for systematic reviews. Current debates tend to center around describing complexity, rather than providing guidance on what to do about it. At a series of meetings during 2009-2012, we met to review the challenges and practical steps reviewer could take to incorporate a complexity perspective into systematic reviews. Based on this, we outline a pragmatic approach to dealing with complexity, beginning, as for any review, with clearly defining the research question(s). We argue that reviews of complex interventions can themselves be simple or complex, depending on the question to be answered. In systematic reviews and evaluations of complex interventions, it will be helpful to start by identifying the sources of complexity, then mapping aspects of complexity in the intervention onto the appropriate sources of evidence (such as specific types of quantitative or qualitative study). Although we focus on systematic reviews, the general approach is also applicable to primary research that is aimed at evaluating complex interventions. Although the examples are drawn from health care, the approach may also be applied to other sectors (e.g., social policy or international development). We end by concluding that systematic reviews should follow the principle of Occam's razor: explanations should be as complex as they need to be and no more.

Objective: The present study was performed to describe the operational implications of using mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a single admission criterion for treatment of severe acute malnutrition in South Sudan. Design: We performed a retrospective analysis of routine programme data of children with severe acute malnutrition aged 6-59 months admitted to a therapeutic feeding programme using weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and/or MUAC. To understand the implications of using MUAC as a single admission criterion, we compared patient characteristics and treatment outcomes for children admitted with MUAC < 115 mm (irrespective of WHZ) v. children admitted with WHZ < −3 and MUAC ≥ 115 mm. Results: Of 2205 children included for analysis, 719 (32·6 %) were admitted to the programme with MUAC < 115 mm and 1486 (67·4 %) with WHZ < −3 and MUAC ≥ 115 mm. Children who would have been admitted using a single MUAC < 115 mm criterion were more severely malnourished and more likely to be female and younger. Compared with children admitted with WHZ < −3 and MUAC ≥ 115 mm, children who would have been admitted using MUAC < 115 mm were less likely to recover (54 % v. 69 %) and had higher risk of death (4 % v. 1 %), but responded to treatment with greater weight and MUAC gains. MUAC < 115 mm would have failed to identify 33 % of deaths, while 98 % were identified by WHZ < −3 alone and 100 % by MUAC < 130 mm. Conclusions: The study shows that MUAC < 115 mm identified more severely malnourished children with a higher risk of mortality but failed to identify a third of the children who died. Admission criteria for therapeutic feeding should be adapted to the programmatic context with consideration for both operational and public health implications. Keywords Child malnutrition Mid-upper arm circumferenceWeight-for-height Z-score Admission criteria Community-based management of acute malnutritionAcute malnutrition represents a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. The number of children under the age of 5 years with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) at any time is currently estimated from prevalence data to be nearly 19 million, with the burden or number of incident cases occurring each year presumably higher (1) . SAM contributes to over a million child deaths annually, as children with SAM are estimated to have an approximately ninefold increased risk of death compared with well-nourished children (2,3) . Traditionally, treatment for SAM was conducted exclusively in in-patient settings, an approach that was both costly and limited access to, and impact of, such programmes.In 2007, a new model for the community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) was endorsed by the WHO, UNICEF, World Food Programme and the UN System Standing Committee on Nutrition, in which children with uncomplicated cases of SAM and appetite could be treated on an out-patient basis with the provision of ready-to-use therapeutic foods and weekly or biweekly follow-up (3) . Increasing evidence and operational experience ha...

Background Through a combination of strong routine immunization (RI), strategic supplemental immunization activities (SIA) and robust surveillance, numerous countries have been able to approach or achieve measles elimination. The fragility of these achievements has been shown, however, by the resurgence of measles since 2016. We describe trends in routine measles vaccine coverage at national and district level, SIA performance and demographic changes in the three regions with the highest measles burden. Findings WHO-UNICEF estimates of immunization coverage show that global coverage of the first dose of measles vaccine has stabilized at 85% from 2015 to 19. In 2000, 17 countries in the WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions had measles vaccine coverage below 50%, and although all increased coverage by 2019, at a median of 60%, it remained far below levels needed for elimination. Geospatial estimates show many low coverage districts across Africa and much of the Eastern Mediterranean and southeast Asian regions. A large proportion of children unvaccinated for MCV live in conflict-affected areas with remote rural areas and some urban areas also at risk. Countries with low RI coverage use SIAs frequently, yet the ideal timing and target age range for SIAs vary within countries, and the impact of SIAs has often been mitigated by delays or disruptions. SIAs have not been sufficient to achieve or sustain measles elimination in the countries with weakest routine systems. Demographic changes also affect measles transmission, and their variation between and within countries should be incorporated into strategic planning. Conclusions Rebuilding services after the COVID-19 pandemic provides a need and an opportunity to increase community engagement in planning and monitoring services. A broader suite of interventions is needed beyond SIAs. Improved methods for tracking coverage at the individual and community level are needed together with enhanced surveillance. Decision-making needs to be decentralized to develop locally-driven, sustainable strategies for measles control and elimination.

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