[1] In November 2004, a regional climate change workshop was held in Guatemala with the goal of analyzing how climate extremes had changed in the region. Scientists from Central America and northern South America brought long-term daily temperature and precipitation time series from meteorological stations in their countries to the workshop. After undergoing careful quality control procedures and a homogeneity assessment, the data were used to calculate a suite of climate change indices over the period. Analysis of these indices reveals a general warming trend in the region. The occurrence of extreme warm maximum and minimum temperatures has increased while extremely cold temperature events have decreased. Precipitation indices, despite the large and expected spatial variability, indicate that although no significant increases in the total amount are found, rainfall events are intensifying and the contribution of wet and very wet days are enlarging. Temperature and precipitation indices were correlated with northern and equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. However, those indices having the largest significant trends (percentage of warm days, precipitation intensity, and contribution from very wet days) have low correlations to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Additionally, precipitation indices show a higher correlation with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Prior to the 24-26 March 2015 extreme precipitation event that impacted northern Chile, the scenarios for Pleistocene and Holocene wetter paleoclimate intervals in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert had been attributed to eastern or southwestern moisture sources. The March 2015 precipitation event offered the first modern opportunity to evaluate a major regional precipitation event relative to those hypothetical paleoclimate scenarios. It was the first opportunity to determine the 18O and 2H composition of a major precipitation event that might eventually be preserved in geological materials. The driver for the March 2015 event was a synoptic-scale weather system, a cutoff cold upper-level low system that traversed the Pacific Ocean at a time of unusually warm temperatures of Pacific surface water. Ground-based precipitation data, stable isotopes in precipitation and river samples, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric data and air mass tracking are utilized to connect the Earth surface processes to atmospheric conditions. The δ18O and δ2H of the precipitation and ephemeral rivers were significantly heavier than the rain, snow and ephemeral rivers fed by more frequent but less voluminous precipitation events registered prior to March 2015. Consistent with the atmospheric analyses, the rain isotopic compositions are typical of a water vapor whose source was at more equatorial latitudes of the Pacific and which moved southward. The late March 2015 system was an unforeseen scenario even for El Niño Pacific ocean conditions. Furthermore, the late summer season warmth led to greater potential for erosion and sediment transport than typical of more common moderate precipitation scenarios which usually include widely distributed snow. A comparison of the March 2015 scenario to the spatial distribution of wetter paleoclimate intervals leads to the hypothesis that the March 2015 scenario likely better fits some parts of the paleoclimate record of the continental interior hyperarid Atacama Desert than do the eastern or southwestern moisture source paleoclimate scenarios deduced previously.