RESUMOObjetivo: Arboviroses são motivo de preocupação para a saúde pública, com impactos clínicos e econômicos negativos. Este estudo teve o objetivo de avaliar custos de combate ao vetor, custos médicos diretos e custos indiretos associados à dengue clássica, dengue hemorrágica, chikungunya e infecção pelo Zika vírus (ZIKV) no Brasil, para o ano de 2016. Métodos: As análises quantificaram custos relacionados ao combate ao vetor, como repasses de recursos federais e aquisição de pesticidas, custos médicos diretos para tratamento das doenças por meio de condutas de manejo ambulatorial e hospitalar e custos indiretos relacionados ao absenteísmo, calculados com base em estudos publicados ou de estimativa de anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (AVAIs). Resultados: O investimento para combate ao vetor foi de R$ 1,5 bilhão no Brasil e o custo reportado pelo governo federal para aquisição de inseticidas e larvicidas foi de R$ 78,6 milhões. Custos médicos diretos geraram gasto total de R$ 374 milhões. Febre chikungunya apresentou o maior número de AVAIs perdidos por episódio da doença (0,036 AVAI), seguido pela infecção por ZIKV (0,005 AVAI). O custo indireto total foi estimado em R$ 431 milhões. Custos totais com o manejo das arboviroses atingiram impacto de R$ 2,3 bilhões no Brasil, em 2016. Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Bahia e Rio de Janeiro apresentaram os maiores custos. Conclusões: Arboviroses geram consideráveis impactos econômico e social ao Brasil. Custos de combate ao vetor, custos médicos diretos e custos indiretos representaram 2% do orçamento previsto para a saúde no País, em 2016. ABSTRACTObjective: Arboviruses are a cause of concern for public health, with negative clinical and economic impacts. The objective of this study was to evaluate costs of vector control, direct medical costs and indirect costs associated with classical dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, chikungunya and Zika virus infection in Brazil for the year 2016. Methods: The analyzes quantified costs related to vector control, such as federal resource transfers and acquisition of pesticides, direct medical costs related to diseases treatment through outpatient and hospital management, and indirect costs related to absenteeism, calculated from published studies or estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results: The investment for vector combat was R$ 1.5 billion in Brazil and the cost reported by federal government for the acquisition of insecticides and larvicides was R$ 78.6 million. Direct medical costs generated total expenses of R$ 374 million. Fever chikungunya presented the highest number of DALYs lost per episode of disease (0.036 DALYs), followed by Zika virus infection (0.005 DALYs). Total indirect cost was estimated at R$ 431 million. Total costs with the management of arboviroses reached an impact of R$ 2.3 billion in Brazil for 2016. Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Bahia and Rio de Janeiro presented the highest costs. Conclusions: Arboviroses generate considerable economic and social impact to Brazil. Vector combat c...
used as independent variables. The negative binomial generalized linear model used a lag from 0 to 3 months between climatic parameters and DENV cases. Results: An exploratory analysis showed a highly seasonal behavior for DENV cases, peaking around March/April, 2-3 months after the most rainy month in SP (January). The analysis showed an abnormal number of cases in 2010/11, which could be explained by the reintroduction of DEN-1 serotype in 2010. These deviance could lead to overestimation of dengue cases by the model. The best fitting model (AIC= 198) lagged climatic data by 2 months (DENV cases could be predicted 2 months earlier), overestimating total number of cases between 2007-2012 by 12%. As opposed to other models, humidity wasn't a statistically significant variable and was omitted from the model. ConClusions: The proposed empirical model was capable of predicting trends in DENV outbursts, 2 months in advance, based on climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature).
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