Purpose The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to an unparalleled influx of patients. Prognostic scores could help optimizing healthcare delivery, but most of them have not been comprehensively validated. We aim to externally validate existing prognostic scores for COVID-19. Methods We used “COVID-19 Evidence Alerts” (McMaster University) to retrieve high-quality prognostic scores predicting death or intensive care unit (ICU) transfer from routinely collected data. We studied their accuracy in a retrospective multicenter cohort of adult patients hospitalized for COVID-19 from January 2020 to April 2021 in the Greater Paris University Hospitals. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed for the prediction of the original outcome, 30-day in-hospital mortality and the composite of 30-day in-hospital mortality or ICU transfer. Results We included 14,343 consecutive patients, 2583 (18%) died and 5067 (35%) died or were transferred to the ICU. We examined 274 studies and found 32 scores meeting the inclusion criteria: 19 had a significantly lower AUC in our cohort than in previously published validation studies for the original outcome; 25 performed better to predict in-hospital mortality than the composite of in-hospital mortality or ICU transfer; 7 had an AUC > 0.75 to predict in-hospital mortality; 2 had an AUC > 0.70 to predict the composite outcome. Conclusion Seven prognostic scores were fairly accurate to predict death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The 4C Mortality Score and the ABCS stand out because they performed as well in our cohort and their initial validation cohort, during the first epidemic wave and subsequent waves, and in younger and older patients. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00134-021-06524-w.

Genotypically resistant cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with increased morbi-mortality. We herein aimed at understanding the factors that predict CMV genotypic resistance in refractory infections and disease in the SOTR (Solid Organ Transplant Recipients) population, and the factors associated with outcomes. We included all SOTRs who were tested for CMV genotypic resistance for CMV refractory infection/disease over ten years in two centers. Eighty-one refractory patients were included, 26 with genotypically resistant infections (32%). Twenty-four of these genotypic profiles conferred resistance to ganciclovir (GCV) and 2 to GCV and cidofovir. Twenty-three patients presented a high level of GCV resistance. We found no resistance mutation to letermovir. Age (OR = 0.94 per year, IC95 [0.089–0.99]), a history of valganciclovir (VGCV) underdosing or of low plasma concentration (OR= 5.6, IC95 [1.69–20.7]), being on VGCV at infection onset (OR = 3.11, IC95 [1.18–5.32]) and the recipients’ CMV negative serostatus (OR = 3.40, IC95 [0.97–12.8]) were independently associated with CMV genotypic resistance. One year mortality was higher in the resistant CMV group (19.2 % versus 3.6 %, p = 0.02). Antiviral drugs severe adverse effects were also independently associated with CMV genotypic resistance. CMV genotypic resistance to antivirals was independently associated with a younger age, exposure to low levels of GCV, the recipients’ negative serostatus, and presenting the infection on VGCV prophylaxis. This data is of importance, given that we also found a poorer outcome in the patients of the resistant group.

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Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) frequently occurs after diuretic treatment initiation during acute heart failure (AHF). Treatment-induced hemoconcentration seems associated with improved prognosis. Transient AKI, with or without hemoconcentration, is of unsettled prognosis. Purpose We aimed to determine the independent prognostic values of transient AKI, persistent AKI and hemoconcentration in the context of hospitalized AHF. Methods Data were obtained from our institution's Clinical Data Warehouse. Patients that visited our unit at least once were screened. All hospitalizations in our institution were examined (>30 hospitals). Inclusion criteria were: ≥1 hospitalization with ≥1 recorded furosemide administration and ≥1 AHF ICD-10 code. Only the first hospitalization fulfilling these criteria was considered. AKI during 1–13 days following first furosemide administration was defined based on Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome guidelines. Hemoconcentration was defined as an increase in serum proteins ≥5 g/l during the same period. We performed multivariate logistic regression to determine which characteristics were predictive of AKI. We used Cox regression of 100-days all-cause mortality using several confounders to determine the prognostic values of transient AKI (lasting <14 days), persistent AKI (lasting ≥14 days) and hemoconcentration. To account for immortality bias, AKI and hemoconcentration were treated as time-dependent covariates. Results We included 579 patients in the study. Median follow-up was 114 days. AKI following furosemide initiation occurred in 234 patients (40.4%). Patients that experienced AKI more frequently suffered from chronic kidney disease (43.6% vs. 33%, p=0.01) or presented with right ventricular dilatation (12% vs. 6.7%, p=0.04). Independent predictors of AKI were arterial hypertension (adjusted OR: 1.86 [1.08–3.22]), elevated serum creatinine at baseline (adjusted OR: 1.07 [1.01–1.14] per 10 μmol/l increase) and initial intravenous furosemide (adjusted OR: 2.42 [1.39–4.29]). Death during follow-up occurred in 35% of patients in the AKI group compared to 21% in the non-AKI group (p<0.001). In Cox regression, persistent AKI was independently associated with increased mortality in a period of 100 days following furosemide initiation (adjusted HR: 2.31 [1.07–4.99]). Transient AKI was not significantly associated with mortality (adjusted HR: 0.64 [0.34–1.19]). Hemoconcentration was independently associated with decreased mortality (adjusted HR: 0.46 [0.27–0.79]). Conclusion In the context of hospitalized AHF, AKI that developed 1–13 days after furosemide initiation and that lasted ≥14 days was independently associated with decreased 100 days survival. Hemoconcentration, using a clinically relevant definition, was independently associated with improved survival. These findings show that serum creatinine and proteins, routinely used and with limited cost, accurately stratify mortality risk during AHF. Kaplan-Meier curves Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None