Abstract:The inter-comparison of regional air quality models is an effective way to understand uncertainty in ambient pollutant concentrations simulated using various model configurations, as well as to find ways to improve model performance. Based on the outcomes and experiences of Japanese projects thus far, a new model inter-comparison project called Japan's study for reference air quality modeling (J-STREAM) has begun. The objective of J-STREAM is to establish reference air quality modeling for source apportionment and effective strategy making to suppress secondary air pollutants including PM 2.5 and photochemical ozone in Japan through model inter-comparison. The first phase focuses on understanding the ranges and limitations in ambient PM 2.5 and ozone concentrations simulated by participants using common input datasets. The second phase focuses on issues revealed in previous studies in simulating secondary inorganic aerosols, as well as on the three-dimensional characteristics of photochemical ozone as a new target. The third phase focuses on comparing source apportionments and sensitivities under heavy air pollution episodes simulated by participating models. Detailed understanding of model performance, uncertainty, and possible improvements to urban-scale air pollution involving secondary pollutants, as well as detailed sector-wise source apportionments over megacities in Japan are expected.
Regional air quality simulations provide powerful tools for clarifying mechanisms of heavy air pollution and for considering effective strategies for better air quality. This study introduces a new vegetation database for Japan, which could provide inputs for regional meteorological modeling, and estimating emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), both of which are essential components of simulations. It includes newly developed emission factors (EFs) of BVOCs for major vegetation types in Japan, based on existing literature. The new database contributes to improved modeling of meteorological fields due to its updated representation of larger urban areas. Using the new vegetation and EF database, lower isoprene and monoterpene, and higher sesquiterpene emissions are estimated for Japan than those derived from previously available default datasets. These slightly reduce the overestimation of ozone concentrations obtained by a regional chemical transport model, whereas their effects on underestimated secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations are marginal. Further work is necessary, not only on BVOC emissions but also the other simulation components, to further improve the modeling of ozone and SOA concentrations in Japan.
Since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011, atmospheric simulation models have improved our understanding of the atmospheric behavior of radionuclides. Model intercomparisons provide valuable and useful information for evaluating the validity and variability of individual model results. In this study, we compared results of seven atmospheric transport models used to simulate 137Cs released from the FDNPP to the atmosphere. All model results used in this analysis had been submitted for a model intercomparison project of the Science Council of Japan (2014, http://www.scj.go.jp/en/report/index.html). Here we assessed model performance by comparing model results with observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of 137Cs, with a particular focus on nine plumes over the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The intercomparison results showed that model performance in reproducing 137Cs concentrations was highly variable among different models and plumes. In general, models better reproduced plumes that passed over many observation stations. The performance among the models was consistent with the simulated wind fields and the source terms used. We also assessed model performance in relation to accumulated 137Cs deposition. Simulated areas of high 137Cs deposition were consistent with the simulated 137Cs plume pathways, though the models that best simulated atmospheric 137Cs concentrations were different from those that best simulated deposition. The ensemble mean of all models consistently reproduced atmospheric 137Cs concentrations and deposition well, suggesting that use of a multimodel ensemble results in more effective and consistent model performance.
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