Summary Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people...
BackgroundAccurate assessment of self-reports of sexual behaviours is vital to the evaluation of HIV prevention and family planning interventions. This investigation was to determine the cross-cultural suitability of the Condom Use Self Efficacy Scale (CUSES) originally developed for American adolescents and young adults by examining the structure and psychometric properties.MethodA self-administered cross-sectional survey of a convenient sample of 511 participants from a private university in Ghana with mean age 21.59 years.ResultA Principal Component Analysis with varimax rotation identified a 14 item scale with four reliable factors labelled Appropriation (Cronbach alpha = .85), Assertive (Cronbach alpha = .90), Pleasure and Intoxicant (Cronbach alpha = .83), and STDs (Cronbach alpha = .81) that altogether explained 73.72% of the total variance. The scale correlated well with a measure of condom use at past sexual encounter (r = .73), indicating evidence of construct and discriminatory validity. The factor loadings were similar to the original CUSES scale but not identical suggesting relevant cultural variations.ConclusionThe 14 item scale (CUSES-G) is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing condom use self efficacy. It is culturally appropriate for use among Ghanaian youth to gauge actual condom use and to evaluate interventions meant to increase condom use. Finally, the study cautioned researchers against the use of the original CUSES without validation in African settings and contexts.
Objective: The current study sought to investigate the association between age, gender, social support and the psychological wellbeing of people living with HIV and AIDS (PLHA) in Ghana. Method: Cross-sectional data containing information on demographics, social support and psychological well-being (stress, depression, and anxiety), were collected from 107 men and women living with HIV/AIDS. To explore age group differences, participants were stratified by age (< 39 vs. 40+ years). Three anonymous self-administered questionnaires were used, namely the demographic data questionnaire, Sources of Social Support Scale, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-42). Results: Correlation analysis revealed that social support was negatively associated with depression, stress and anxiety. Compared with males living with HIV, women reported higher levels of stress, depression and anxiety. Female gender and low social support were significant predictors of depression and stress after controlling for selected independent variables. Older participants experienced higher levels of stress than their younger counterparts.
Using the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, this study explores the correlates of early sexual debut among 2,746 (males = 670 and females = 2,076) sexually active youth aged 15 to 24 years in Ghana. The results indicate that males aged 15 to 19 years (odds ratio [ OR] = 8.84, p < .001) and who had basic education ( OR = 3.17, p < .001) were significantly more likely to initiate sexual debut early. Urban males who had used modern contraceptive ( OR = 0.35, p < .001) were significantly less likely to initiate early sexual debut. Meanwhile, females aged 15 to 19 years ( OR = 4.26, p < .001); who had used modern contraceptive ( OR = 1.99, p < .001); with no formal ( OR = 2.90, p < .001) or basic ( OR = 3.12, p < .001) education; with partial access to media ( OR = 1.58, p < .01); and from the Akans ( OR = 1.73, p < .001), Ewes ( OR = 1.92, p < .001), and other ethnic groups ( OR = 1.63, p < .001) were significantly more likely to initiate early sexual debut. However, employed females living in rural areas ( OR = 0.70, p < .01) and those with average ( OR = 0.54, p < .01) or rich ( OR = 0.51, p < .01) household living in urban areas were significantly less likely to initiate early sexual debut. Interventions and policies targeting those living in both rural and urban areas are therefore needed for adolescent males and females in their early teens before they start engaging in sexual intercourse.
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