We explore the asymmetric behaviour of inflation around the target level for inflation‐targeting countries. The first rationale behind this asymmetry is the asymmetric policy response of the central bank around the target. Central banks could have a stronger bias towards overshooting rather than undershooting the inflation target. Consequently, the policy response would be stronger once the inflation jumps above the target, compared to a negative deviation. Second rationale is the asymmetric inflation persistence. We suggest that recently developed Asymmetric Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (AESTAR) model provides a convenient framework to capture the asymmetric behaviour of inflation driven by these two effects. We further conduct an out‐of‐sample forecasting exercise and show that the predictive power of AESTAR model for inflation is high for some countries in our sample, especially at long‐horizons.
We discuss the role of foreign exchange reserves as precautionary savings under an imperfect market framework due to the presence of endogenously determined borrowing constraints. We show that cost of holding reserves is higher in borrowing constrained economies than unconstrained ones as a result of the leverage e¤ect of the debt. We also argue that high global reserve holdings can even be welfare reducing for the world economy where …nancially constrained developing countries are heavy borrowers in international lending markets.JEL Classi…cation: F32, F34.
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