This article presents some theoretical and empirical approaches for identifying interactions among fundamental economic variables that determine housing prices. Using home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) loan‐level data, this study quantifies the major risks of reverse mortgages and shows that higher housing prices induce higher demand for reverse mortgages among elderly homeowners. Senior citizens rationally hold pessimistic expectations about future housing price appreciation and lock in their home‐equity gains by obtaining reverse mortgages, which in turn led to the substantial HECM growth prior to the financial crisis of 2008. A novel simulation also forecasts HECM loans under various economic scenarios. From a mortgage credit perspective, these findings generate several policy implications for the implementation of “HECM 3.0.”
In this paper, we conduct a fast calibration in the jump-diffusion model to capture the Bitcoin price dynamics, as well as the behavior of some components affecting the price itself, such as the risk of pitfalls and its ambiguous effect on the evolution of Bitcoin’s price. In addition, in our study of the Bitcoin option pricing, we find that the inclusion of jumps in returns and volatilities are significant in the historical time series of Bitcoin prices. The benefits of incorporating these jumps flow over into option pricing, as well as adequately capture the volatility smile in option prices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to analyze the phenomenon of price jump risk and to interpret Bitcoin option valuation as “exceptionally ambiguous”. Crucially, using hedging options for the Bitcoin market, we also prove some important properties: Bitcoin options follow a convex, but not strictly convex function. This property provides adequate risk assessment for convex risk measure.
This paper provides new evidence on reducing income (or wealth) disparity. Accurate inequality measures are important to policymakers with a concern for inequality governance and the calibration of tax policy. Our empirical findings show that block trading of securities has no significant impact on volume or amount before and after the 2015 abolition of capital gains taxation in Taiwan. Crucially, the results ultimately demonstrate complete capital gains tax redistribution failure, due to capital flight into overseas investments. Thus, tax policy cannot be the only channel to reduce these inequalities. At the national level, policymakers could build on the conclusions drawn in this paper by developing corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies and adjusting the tax systems for wealthy people so as to achieve policy goals. Our study aims to provide the first quantitative empirical evidence recognizing significant factors among the CSR strategies pursued to strengthen the rules of inequality governance. More precisely, we have also applied both fully modified and dynamic ordinary least squares cointegration tests, as well as conical cointegration regression, to check the robustness of our estimation results.
The main determination of mortgage risk factors is undoubtedly related to the housing price .In this article, we employ threshold GARCH process in practical analysis, to capture the house price dynamic on the logarithm return. This study also estimates the housing price volatility in the presence of stationary variance property from the threshold GARCH model and its implied volatility can serve as a benchmark for the pricing reverse mortgage derivatives. Our results have important implications for hedging risk of reverse mortgages. To our best knowledge, this paper is the first study employing Poisson Regression approach to look at the housing prices risk of reverse mortgage incorporated with its number of loans.
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