This study analyzes the causality relationship between economic growth and energy production (Electricity and Thermal Energy) and technological investments in Kazakhstan between 1993 and 2020 using Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), and also performs impact analysis. Cointegration analysis was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the variables that became stationary after the first difference. Energy production proved to be an important contributor to the economic growth of Kazakhstan. Compared to energy production, technology investments have a more decisive effect on economic growth. Therefore, the importance of technology investments for countries has been emphasized once again.
Increases in oil prices cause inflation. Interest rates are expected to decrease as a result of the expansionary monetary policies of the central banks in response to the indirect effect of increasing oil prices on inflation. Because an increase in oil price creates an additional foreign currency inflow to Kazakhstan, this leads to the appreciation of its national currency tenge. Therefore, this study uses monthly Brent Oil Price (OP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) values for the period 2015:M1–2021:M11 to investigate the effect of oil price on inflation and real exchange rate in Kazakhstan. Analysis are performed using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The results showed that while the Real Effective Exchange Rate mostly affects the Oil Price, the Consumer Price Index variable affects the Real Effective Exchange Rate.
In this study, the relationship between KASE stock market closing prices and oil prices is analyzed using ADF and Zivot-Andrews' (1992) unit root tests and monthly data for the period of 2016-2021. First, the variables are tested for causality. Results show that there is a causal relationship between the real exchange rate and closing prices and between oil prices and the real exchange rate. The short-term effects of the variables are investigated using the VAR method. Results show that Brent crude oil prices have a positive effect on KASE closing prices, while the real exchange rate has a negative effect. In conclusion, changes in oil prices affect the formation of stock prices.
This study analyzes the causal relationship between the highest price formation and trading volume in Energy Company stocks traded on KASE. In addition, Granger causality analysis is strengthened with frequency domain causality analysis to determine the concentration points of the causality relationship. This aspect provides vital decision support, especially in investment decisions. Three different relationships are identified for the causality between the highest price formation and the transaction volume. There is a two-way causality relationship for KEGC and a one-way for KZTO. No causal relationship was found for KZAP. These results can be interpreted as an indication that the Kazakhstan stock market offers a rich portfolio for investors. The causality structure of the investment climate in Kazakhstan can be analyzed by similar studies on the composite index and other companies traded in KASE. The time interval of the study was determined as between 01.01.2021 and 31.01.2023 and the data used were retrieved from the investing.com website.
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