The ever-increasing travel demand has brought great challenges to the organization, operation, and management of the subway system. An accurate estimation of passenger flow distribution can help subway operators design corresponding operation plans and strategies scientifically. Although some literature has studied the problem of passenger flow distribution by analyzing the passengers’ path choice behaviors based on AFC (automated fare collection) data, few studies focus on the passenger flow distribution while considering the passenger–train matching probability, which is the key problem of passenger flow distribution. Specifically, the existing methods have not been applied to practical large-scale subway networks due to the computational complexity. To fill this research gap, this paper analyzes the relationship between passenger travel behavior and train operation in the space and time dimension and formulates the passenger–train matching probability by using multi-source data including AFC, train timetables, and network topology. Then, a reverse derivation method, which can reduce the scale of possible train combinations for passengers, is proposed to improve the computational efficiency. Simultaneously, an estimation method of passenger flow distribution is presented based on the passenger–train matching probability. Finally, two sets of experiments, including an accuracy verification experiment based on synthetic data and a comparison experiment based on real data from the Beijing subway, are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The calculation results show that the proposed method has a good accuracy and computational efficiency for a large-scale subway network.
In the extensive urban rail transit network, interruptions will lead to service delays on the current line and spread to other lines, forcing many passengers to wait, detour, or even give up their trips. This paper proposes an event-driven simulation method to evaluate the impact of interruptions on passenger flow distribution. With this method, passengers are regarded as individual agents who can obtain complete information about the current traffic situation, and the impact of the occurrence, duration, and recovery of interruption events on passengers’ travel decisions is analyzed in detail. Then, two modes are used to assign passenger paths: experience-based pre-trip mode and response-based entrap mode. In the simulation process, the train is regarded as an individual agent with a fixed capacity. With the advance of the simulation clock, the network loading is completed through the interaction of the three agents of passengers, platforms, and trains. Interruption events are considered triggers, affecting other agents by affecting network topology and train schedules. Finally, taking Chongqing Metro as an example, the accuracy and effectiveness of the model are analyzed and verified. And the impact of interruption on passenger flow distribution indicators such as inbound volume, outbound volume, and transfer volume is studied from both the individual and overall dimensions. The results show that this study provides an effective method for calculating the passenger flow distribution of an extensive urban rail transit network in the case of interruption.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.