Based on expert judgment method, determine index weight with AHP method. From 5 aspects of water resource “engineering security, economic security, living security, environmental security and sustainable development security”, construct a security evaluation index framework of urban water resource, including 16 evaluation indexes. According to system security, security of urban water resource is divided into 5 levels: hazardous, unsafe, safe, good and completely adaptive, and corresponding warning light is red, orange, yellow, blue and green. Empirical results show that factors restricting security of Hangzhou water resource are mainly water resource engineering security and sustainable development security.
Water demand prediction adopts combined prediction method based on BP neural network prediction model, grey G (1,1) prediction model, time sequence prediction model (second multinomial exponential smoothing model) and single linear regression model (Cubics Ratio model). Empirical results show that combined prediction method makes comprehensive use of information of every separate prediction model, and thus enhances prediction accuracy.
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